供需失衡下之競合研究 - 第四代行動通訊測試產業為例

全世界第三代行動通訊正處於運行逐漸成熟的階段，行動通訊產業因應大量行動寬頻數據下載的需求，正逐漸邁向第四代行動通訊LTE (Long Term Evolution)的建置，也因此對於通訊研發相當重要的測試業者也正在醞釀升級到LTE測試。通訊符合性測試(Conformance Testing)對通訊產業來說，是確認新功能是否符合規格的重要依據，若通訊測試業者在LTE佈建過慢，將會導致手機廠、系統廠須到歐、美進行測試；可能會造成研發成本過高、時程延長等不利影響。因此建立完整LTE測試能量來驗證台灣LTE產品，已是通訊產業在4G發展的重要指標之ㄧ。但國內通訊測試業因為測試過度供給，致使2G、3G之測試設備投資尚未完全回收，陷入業內競爭激烈、毛利下降之供需失衡窘境，所以對投入下一世代的LTE測試設備投資大多還在觀望，測試業者也擔心LTE測試會像2G及3G般的過度供給而流血競爭，致使投資報酬率低落。但因為通訊測試向後相容的特性，若不繼續投資LTE則將形同放棄先前的2G、3G投資，導致形成策略上進退兩難之困局。本文就此供需失衡的情境，以競合理論(Co-opetition)之價值網為基礎架構，透過與通訊測試實驗室、設備供應商以及互補者的深度訪談，整理並透過競合理論價值網的架構，歸納導引出的適合通訊測試業在過度供給情境下的合作機制選項，來具體整合測試業者的資源，以獲得較好的投資報酬，使測試業者於LTE投資能有良性的競爭和合理回收，並驗證在競合理論中有合作的競爭將比沒有合作的競爭來得健康並且良性。

關鍵字

競合； LTE ；通訊符合性測試；供需失衡

並列摘要

As the mature of 3G system and smart phone, more demands for large data wireless broadband are gradually arising. Among new emerging wireless broadband technologies, the LTE (Long Term Evolution) is the most popular technology which have been selected by most of operators as 4G technology to deploy in coming years. Among telecommunication eco system, conformance testing is one of the most important R&D processes to ensure device compliance to specifications, thus the need of LTE conformance testing facility is indeed valid to wireless industry. Without LTE conformance laboratory, then Taiwan mobile industry may occur extra cost and lead-time for LTE R&D due to overseas testing, such situation may not be positive to general Taiwan LTE eco system. Taiwan wireless testing laboratories have been through a long period of over-supply and price competition, therefore most of wireless laboratories didn’t have good ROI (return of investment) on their 2G and 3G investment. But as the nature technology update on mobile phone, so the current 2G/3G phone will naturedly upgrade to 2G/3G/LTE multi-modes phone. Which mean consequently 2G/3G wireless laboratory would need to upgrade to LTE to handle new LTE testing demands. LTE conformance facility mean a big investment to wireless laboratory, but the ROI remain unknown just like current 2G/3G testing, mostly due to circumstance of over-supply on testing may repeat again in LTE era. So most wireless laboratories are hesitating for LTE investment, but if don’t invest then new LTE testing can’t be secured, could eventually jeopardize 2G/3G investment, thus DO or NOT DO is a strategy dilemma to wireless laboratory, and as LTE deployment is approaching, timely decision is another key for laboratories. Based on above dilemma, this research adopting the Value Net concept of Co-opetition theory, to sort out cooperation alternatives via deep interview with different roles of Value Net, including Supplier, Competitor and Complementor, then to summarize alternatives for wireless testing laboratories to compete healthily, and also able to cooperate under certain mechanism toward a positive ROI for LTE investment. And for academic purpose, also prove that competition with cooperation is better than those without cooperation.