倉儲設備投資計劃之風險評估

The Risk Analysis for the Investment Project of the Warehouse System

王瑞晟(Jui-Cheng Wang)

指導教授 ： 胡黃德 博士

元智大學/工程學院/工業工程與管理學系/碩士(2005年)

摘要

無資料

關鍵字

蒙地卡羅法 ； 風險分析 ； 工程經濟分析 ； 自動倉儲

並列摘要

The current business practice is to search for the quickness, efficiency and quality. To achieve the above goals, factory automation is a better method. One of the automation methods is to install the automated warehouse system. The well-designed warehouse operating system can store, deliver, control, record and manage the inventory effectively. It also provides right material, shorten the stocking period, reduce idle/shortage of the inventories during the production process. This research was to evaluate the investment project of the automated warehouse system. However, the prospective benefits and risks of this system were not easy to predict. Hence, the use of the engineering economic analysis tools can play an important role for the system evaluation. This research utilized the risk analysis model with historical data and parameters sets so that a risk analysis model for the evaluation of the automated warehouse system. The Crystal Ball software and Monte Carlo Method (with 1000 random samplings) were used to forecast the Net Present Value (NPV) of the investment projects. The results show that the positive NPV for the investment project during a 20 years study period. And the 92.7% probability of the positive NPV indicates that this is a good investment project. The decision maker can benefit from the use of the risk analysis tool for the evaluation of the investment project.

並列關鍵字

Monte Carlo Method ； Risk Analysis ； Engineering Economics Analysis ； Automated Warehouse

參考文獻

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