本研究旨在探討季盈餘分配之特性與盈餘管理之關係,主要動機有二:(1)探討第四季季盈餘分配之特性是否可以作為偵測盈餘管理與評估盈餘品質之有效指標;(2)就不同產業與不同應計項目組成份子進行分析,以探討經理人在第四季進行盈餘管理時主要操縱項目。 本研究假定企業在第四季愈接近季末時其盈餘管理愈趨積極,故將可能對季盈餘分配之特性產生系統性影響。本研究擬藉由觀察季盈餘組成中應計項目金額之波動性(volatility)與第四季盈餘變動反轉(reversals)之型態歸納出季盈餘分配特性。本研究針對民國83年至90年之台灣上市公司樣本進行分析。實證結果如下: 1.第四季應計項目金額之絕對值顯著異於前三季應計項目金額之絕對值,且第四季應計項目金額之波動性顯著一階隨機凌駕於前三季應計項目金額之波動性 2.第四季盈餘變動反轉情形相當普遍,雖可排除因真實經濟活動與迴歸平均過程之可能因素,但與其他盈餘管理指標之關聯性不高。 3.以裁決性應計項目分組結果,前25%與後25%之兩組除異常折舊項目外,其他各項異常應計項目之變異程度均有顯著差異。以門檻效果分組結果,在三種不同的預測誤差區間中,異常應計項目之平均數及變異程度無顯著差異,故與預期不符,而以盈餘變動反轉分組,也無顯著結果。最後,以產業別分組結果,食品業可能利用之盈餘管理項目為應收帳款項目及特別項目,而紡織業則為特別項目,鋼鐵業為應付帳款項目,最後電子業則為應收帳款及特別項目。此外,不同的產業其異常應計項目之變異程度不同。
This paper attempts to explore the relationship between the characteristics of quarterly earnings and earnings management. There are two objectives of this study. First, examining weather if certain characteristics of quarterly earnings can be used as efficient indicators to detect earnings management. Second, analyzing the components of accruals used by management to earnings management and analyzing across industries. The characteristics of quarterly earnings include quarterly accruals volatility and the reversal of quarterly earnings changes .We used the discretionary accruals to measure the accruals volatility and Kolmogorov-Smirnov Distance to measure the stochastic dominance for the distribution. The results are as follows: 1.The First-order stochastic dominance of fourth quarter accrual volatility over the other three quarter accruals is statistically significant. 2.The reversal of quarterly earnings changes in the fourth quarter is a common phenomenon. Although its occurrence is greater than would be expected by chance, the relationship between the reversal of quarterly earnings changes and earnings management is weak. 3.The variance of each abnormal accruals item between the first quarter of discretionary accruals and the last quarter of discretionary accruals are significant except abnormal depreciation item. But the variance of each abnormal accruals item between the threshold’s left and right side are not significant. Food and electronic likely use abnormal accounts receivables item and special item to management earnings. Spinning also use special item, but steel use abnormal account payable item.
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