CPFR導入之例外門檻值研究

The Study of Exception Thresholds in CPFR Implementation

黃泓耀(Hung-Yao Huang)

指導教授 ： 陳雲岫

元智大學/工程學院/工業工程與管理學系/碩士(2005年)

摘要

供應鏈普遍存在長鞭效應，主要是因為供應鏈中各個階段分別針對其目標而有不同的需求與預測，因此各項資訊在整體傳遞的過程中不免會產生扭曲現象。為了避免上述缺點，可藉由資訊分享，使得供應鏈所有階段能依照實際之顧客需求資訊，因此能有效降低長鞭效應問題。然而為達到徹底消除長鞭效應，除了POS資料之分享外，自發性跨產業商務標準（VICS）協會提出一套協同規劃、預測與補貨策略，期望藉由一連串指導原則輔助加強企業間協同合作關係，共同打造滿足消費者需求之環境。
協同規劃、預測與補貨（CPFR）策略乃是藉由「例外」進行管理，因此為了能夠有效執行，如何定義例外將會影響企業導入此策略之成敗與否。關於一般例外門檻之設定大多參考歷史事件或是人工定義模式，容易流於不切實際。為避免此主觀意識問題，本研究乃利用計算公司的預測錯誤進而導致企業的財物損失，尋求當此損失與企業銷貨收入之利潤達到一平衡點，亦即公司對此商品之營運將由收益轉為虧損之時，作為量化例外門檻值之設定。接續藉由過度預測與不足預測之例外門檻值設定之完成，可建構企業間在CPFR策略下之例外容許範圍，使得協同預測效果可保持企業持續獲利之效能。案例中，除了瞭解例外門檻值之應用定位之外，另外觀察到促銷活動對於例外門檻值造成之影響，以及當預測誤差率超出了CPFR例外容許範圍，表示有例外事件發生而需要進行協同預測修正，進而變更例外門檻值之情形。
研究結果顯示例外門檻值存有控管難易度、彈性度與共識度之議題，而影響其變異之因素除了協同預測值之外，另外包含錯誤預測額外成本率以及管銷成本與銷貨收入比值之組合。企業可根據其目標，利用調整控制因素取得適宜之例外門檻值應用。

關鍵字

長鞭效應 ； 協同規劃/預測與補貨 ； 例外管理 ； 例外門檻值 ； 預測誤差

並列摘要

In supply chain, the Bullwhip Effect will be resulted from the reason that each phase aims its target and then every phase will have different demands and forecasts. Due to this reason every information that pass through the chain would be possible incorrect. To avoid this fault, information sharing can make every phase in the supply chain gets real customer demand information and then reduce the effect of Bullwhip Effect. However, to achieve the object of eliminating the Bullwhip Effect, in addition to POS information sharing, the Voluntary Interindustry Communications Standards (VICS) association provides a strategy of Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment, and expects to strengthen the collaborative relationships between companies by a series of guiding principles to make the environment that fulfills the consumers’ demands.
The strategy of Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) would be managed by “exception,” so how to define the “exception” will affect the enterprise to succeed implementing CPFR or not. Because it’s unrealistic to set exception thresholds by using historical events or subjective methods, the research will quantify the exception thresholds. The research method is to utilize the count of financial loss cause from the forecast error to generate an exception tolerant range between companies. In the range, companies could continue making a profit by the collaborative forecasts. In the cases, in addition to know how to use the exception thresholds in CPFR, also observe how the sales promotion and collaborative forecast revision change exception tolerant range.
The research results show the enterprise can stand on its aims to use the collaborative forecast, extra cost rates of forecast error, and the ratio of operation cost and sale revenue to affect exception thresholds to be controlled easily, to be strict, or to be in a common consensus with its trading partner.

並列關鍵字

Bullwhip Effect ； CPFR ； exception management ； exception thresholds ； forecast error