我國武器獲得策略動態模型及決策評估之研究

A Study of Dynamic Model of Weapon System Acquisition Strategy

馬英漢(Ying-Han Ma)

指導教授 ： 陳勁甫

元智大學/資訊學院/資訊管理學系/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6838/YZU.2009.00064

摘要

我國自大陸撥遷來台，經歷了一段風雨飄搖的時期，因「民主」與「集權」陣營對壘，在亞太的國際地位大起大落，期間又由「中」美建交、斷交再過渡到冷戰結束，美國及其他武器供售國基於國家利益考量，直接與間接的影響我國武器的籌獲，故政府亦基於外在威脅與內部經濟發展需求，考量有限的國家資源，適時調整武器獲得策略，以面對詭譎多變的國際局勢與兩岸關係。
檢視我國「武器獲得」之現實狀況，需先進行評估及分析，以不斷的做決策與執行，以便從各備選方案中選擇出符合整體利益之最佳方案，並確保選擇出最符合需求、風險最少、效益最高的武器系統。「武器獲得」決策評估問題乃屬多準則決策的問題。過去許多有關武器獲得的研究，大都僅反應出影響方案準則的權重，對於構面如何影響決策的實質關係論述較為有限。
據此，本研究提出一個整合的方法以解決上述複雜的問題。此方法結合了文獻分析與模糊德爾菲法（Fuzzy Delphi Method），另提供規劃者一個具體分析決策的模型，並進而交互驗證以找出決策者具實質效益的選項，使武器獲得之決策者有充分之評估參考依據，以策訂出符合國家安全與建軍規劃之武獲政策。本研究所提供的模型除能說明影響武器獲得策略的構面外，更能檢視我國未來武器整備應有的認知與努力的方向。

關鍵字

武器獲得 ； 國防科技 ； 動態模型 ； 模糊德爾菲法

並列摘要

Since the central government of Republic of China (ROC) withdrew to Taiwan, our government had experienced a really difficult time. The international position of our government in Asia Pacific has been going though ups and downs. During the stages of building Sino-America diplomatic relationship, and cut-off relationship, then transit to the end of cold-war, the acquisition of weapon system was directly or indirectly affected by United States and other main supply countries. Therefore, based on the requirements of outer threads and inner economic development, while considering our limited country sources, we have to adjust the acquisition strategy at appropriate time, in order to deal with the varying international situation and strait relationship.
To examine the practical condition of our weapon acquisition system, it has to go under the process of evaluation and analysis first, and continuously make decisions and executions. By this way, the best solution of all the alternative solutions could be found, and be ensured the best solution will meet the requirements, take the lowest risks, and be the most effective weapon system. The evaluating questions of the decision making of“ weapon acquisition” belongs to Multi-Criteria Decision Making, (MCDM).In the past, most studies of weapon acquisition only reflect the weight of affluence solution criteria, and there are rarely dissertations of how the criteria affects the physical relation of the decision making.
According to the above, this study provides a integrate method to solve the complex question as mentioned. This method combines document analysis and Fuzzy Delphi method, in addition, it provides the planner a solid model of analyzing decision-making, and further to cross verify the most effective alternative solutions. It makes the decision-maker to have adequate reference of evaluation in order to make the weapon acquisition policy meet the national security and the planning of forces deployment. The models provided by this study not only explain the main frame of the strategies which affect the weapon acquisition, moreover, it can also inspect the knowledge that should be acquired and leads the direction to make effort toward the future of the government's weapon implement.

並列關鍵字

Weapon Acquisition, Defense Technology ； Dynamic Model ； Fuzzy Delphi Method

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