台灣因具地勢陡峭、地質破碎及氣候多雨等特殊的地理環境,導致山區發生土石流的風險高,除了造成人民生命及財產的威脅外,對於政府所投入的龐大救災資金更是成為一大負擔。 本研究以高雄市茂林區萬山里做為研究對象,透過土石流流動模擬(FLO-2D),得知其100年及200年重現期距兩日降雨量後,分別以三種不同的情形來模擬土石流影響範圍,為最樂觀值、中間值及最悲觀值來進行比較分析,主要方法係透過實地調查及資料蒐集,運用重現期距每年發生機率及保全對象總損失的乘積,得知其萬山里之風險值;其中,總損失為價值(重置成本)及脆弱度的乘積,而價值可分為人命及地上物等,其加總後轉化為統一的幣值單位;脆弱度則會以FLO-2D所模擬出來的堆積深度(m)及流速(m/s)結果之數據,代入各價值項目的脆弱度函數,予以計算得知,其值介於無損失(0)~完全損失(1)之間。 每年風險值最高為100年重現期距(最悲觀值)達新台幣310萬9,934元,其次為200年重現期距(最悲觀值)有新台幣213萬6,263元,再來是100年重現期距(最樂觀值、中間值)的新台幣2萬0,275元、新台幣1萬9,243元,然後是200年重現期距(中間值)的新台幣1萬1,211元,最低則是200年重現期距(最樂觀值)的新台幣1萬1,104元;如果只探討災害損失的話,則是200年重現期距(最悲觀值)達新台幣4億2,725萬2,647元為最高,100年重現期距(最悲觀值)的新台幣3億1,099萬3,440元為次之,再來則是200年重現期距(中間值、最樂觀值)的新台幣224萬2,159元、新台幣222萬0,719元,然後是100年重現期距(最樂觀值)的新台幣202萬7,469元,100年重現期距(中間值)的新台幣192萬4,254元為最低。 研究成果可供政府或相關單位,進行土石流風險評估之相關政策的實施、資源運用或工程效益評估,同時可提供後續有效的防災、救災及減災之參考依據。
Taiwan has a steep terrain, crushing geology and climate wetter and other special geographical environment, leading to a high risk of debris flow in mountains. People's lives and property caused by the threats. The government invested a huge relief funds is to become a big burden. In this study, Kaohsiung Maolin Wanshan as a research object.Primary method by FLO-2D simulation.To knowthe100 yearsand200 yearsfrom thetwo-dayreturn periodrainfall before. Three differentscenariosaresimulatedwiththe scope ofdebris. The most optimistic value, the optimum value and the value of a comparative analysis of the most pessimistic. Primary method byfield investigation programanddata collection. Every yearreturn periodfrom thetotal lossprobabilityand thepreservation of theobjectmultiplied. To knowthe risk of this area. Value (replacement cost) and vulnerability assessment of the product.Value divided life,the ground substance and other projects. Add up into a unified currency units. Vulnerability to FLO-2D program will be simulated the accumulation depth (m)andvelocity (m/s)results. Value of the project into the vulnerability function is calculated. The results of between no loss (0) and all destroy (1). Every year risk of the highest is 100 yearsreturn period (the value of a pessimistic), the price is NT3,109,934. Second is 200 yearsreturn period (the value of a pessimistic), the price is NT 2,136,263. 100 yearsreturn period (the value of aoptimistic and middle), the price is NT20,275 and NT 19,243. 200 yearsreturn period (the value of a middle), the price is NT11,211. Lowest is 200 yearsreturn period (the value of a optimistic), the price is NT 11,104.If only study loss, thatthe highest is 200 yearsreturn period (the value of a pessimistic), the price is NT427,252,647. Second is 100 yearsreturn period (the value of a pessimistic), the price is NT 310,993,440. 200 yearsreturn period (the value of a middle and optimistic), the price is NT2,242,159 and NT 2,220,719. 100 yearsreturn period (the value of a optimistic), the price is NT 2,027,469. Lowest is 100 yearsreturn period (the optimum middle), the price is NT 1,924,254. Provide government or related research units. Landslide risk assessment carried out related to the implementation of policies, effective use of resources or engineering assessment. Provide follow-up and effective disaster prevention, disaster relief and mitigation of reference.