應用Logistic成長模型分析都市化數據–以APEC為例

Analyzing urbanization data using logistic growth model: The case of APEC

陳建宏(Chien-Hung Chen)

指導教授 ： 謝舜傑

長榮大學/管理學院/土地管理與開發學系(所)/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6833/CJCU.2015.00108

摘要

都市化程度是預測一些全球趨勢的重要指標，然而，都市化程度可能基於不可靠的數據。本研究提出一簡單的方法辨識一個國家的都市與鄉村人口時間序列是否有問題，求出都市化程度上限值以檢視都市化程度趨勢是否遵循Logistic成長模型，實證分析以亞太經濟合作會員國的都市與鄉村人口時間序列為例，以驗證會員國數據之可靠性並得知其都市化的動態機制，這對人口學家、地理學家、其他科學家與政策制訂者相當重要。
本研究其研究內容中將探討各個APEC成員國的都市化情況並分別介紹之。只要研究樣本身具有S形曲線的成長特徵，這種方法就會有效，但在本研究中的都市人口變化與都市化程度預測中發現了理應布該有的異常值的存在。因此，在結論部分則依序說明本研究使用Logistic成長模型卻有出現飽和值異常之國家其飽和值異常的原因有哪些，是否與其本身都市化背景與特色、問題有關聯性，並以此來探討Logistic成長模型的適用性是否有哪些限制與使用上該注意的地方。

關鍵字

都市化曲線 ； 都市化的動態 ； 都市人口

並列摘要

Level of urbanization is an important indicator to predict a number of global trends, however, level of urbanization may be based on unreliable data. This research proposes an simple method to identify a country's urban and country population time series if there is a problem, and to find the upper limit of level of urbanization tendency to view urbanization whether follows logistic growth model. Empirical analysis of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation member countries’ urban and country population time series were used to verify the reliability of the data.
This study will investigate the urbanization of each APEC member countries. As long as the study sample shows S-shaped growth curve, this method will be effective, but the urban population change and urbanization level predicted in this study found that some outliers should exist. An exception occurs because the value of its national saturation value is abnormal, indicating urbanization is relevant to the background and characteristics of the country. Therefore, to use Logistic growth model to explore the urbanization of a country, we should be aware of its applicability and restriction.

並列關鍵字

Urbanization curve ； Dynamic urbanization ； Urban population

參考文獻

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