馬來西亞棕櫚油生物燃料的發展與政策：原油與棕櫚油價格的影響與因果關係

Prospects and Policy of Palm Oil-based Biofuel Development in Malaysia – The Influence and Causal Relationship between Crude Oil Prices and Palm Oil Prices

劉于琳(Lau EIleen)

指導教授 ： 胡美智

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/科技管理研究所/碩士(2015年)

摘要

能源供應和糧食及國家安全問題已經成為一個關鍵的問題。過度使用化石燃料的負面影響日益帶來環保意識，因此尋找替代能源，以滿足持續增長的能源需求也越來越重要。

此外，價格波動破壞化石燃料的能源安全問題和使得進口成本持續增加。為了應對這些趨勢，世界各地的政府正在推動具有再生性和碳中性特質的生物燃料─即衍生自澱粉和糖為基礎之植物的乙醇及衍生自能源作物和動物脂肪的生物柴油。

本研究之研究目的主要探討棕櫚油和原油價格之間的關聯性是否會影響馬來西亞國內能源政策的執行和實施是否會影響。引用馬來西亞國際棕櫚油CIF Rotterdam價格及Tapis國際原油馬來西亞FOB價格，研究期間為 2000年4月1日至2015年3月31日。

本研究使用Johansen 共整合檢定和單根檢定，實證結果發現只有樣本四的油價格和原油價格之間存在共整合關係。除此之外，馬來西亞國內能源政策的執行與頒布，相對於京都議定書(國際政策)的強制執行，加強了棕櫚油價格與原油價格之間的關係。因此，本文建議馬來西亞應將棕櫚油需求市場的生質能源與食品加工部門做明顯的劃分，並擬定政策作為維護措施，以避免原油價格上漲而影響糧食作物價格。

關鍵字

原油價格 ； 棕櫚油價格 ； 能源政策 ； 生質燃料 ； 共整合檢定 ； VECM

並列摘要

Energy supply and energy security issues have become a crucial problem. With the negative effects of excessive use of fossil fuels brought growing environmental awareness, finding alternative energy as their substitutions to fulfill increasing energy demand is getting important.

Compounding these issues, volatile price for fossil fuels are undermining energy security and eroding balances of payments by escalating the cost of energy imports. As part of their response to these convergent trends, many governments across the world are promoting biofuels with characteristic of Carbon Neutral and renewable – namely ethanol derived from plant-based starches and sugars, and biodiesel derived from oil crops and animal fats.

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the execution and implementation of Malaysia's domestic energy policies will affect the relationship between palm oil and crude oil prices. International Malaysia Crude Palm Oil prices with the term of CIF Rotterdam and Malaysia Tapis Crude Oil prices with the term of FOB Malaysia were used as data, data observation start from date April 1, 2000 to March 31, 2015.

Johansen Co-integration analysis and Unit Roots Test were adopted in this study, the empirical results show that only Sample Four exist a co-integration between the crude oil and palm oil prices. Empirical results show that Malaysia promulgation and implementation of the new energy policy and the enforcement of "Kyoto Protocol", strengthen the relationship between the prices of palm oil and crude oil prices. Therefore, this study recommend that the Malaysian government should be clearly divided the market demand for palm oil to biomass energy and food processing, and the implementation of policy as a safeguard measure to cope with rising crude oil prices affect the price of food crops.

並列關鍵字

Crude oil price ； Palm oil price ； energy policy ； Biofuel ； Johansen Co-integration Test ； VECM

參考文獻

FoE, Friends of the Earth 2004, “Press release December 24th 2004--Carbon

Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 417–431.

Prospects: Focus on Malaysian and Indonesian Palm Oil Industry. Malaysia

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