台灣股票市場日內動態訊息交易機率指標和不同身份投資人訊息程度衡量

DPIN measure of TWSE listed stocks & information level of different types of trader

何瑞嘉(He, Ruei Jia)

指導教授 ： 冼芻蕘

國立清華大學/科技管理學院/經濟學系/碩士(2015年)

摘要

本研究分為主要兩個部分，第一部分根據 Chang, Chang and Wang (2014) 提出的日內動態訊息交易機率指標(DPIN), 衡量在台灣證券交易所掛牌上市的股票的交易訊息。 此外，我們運用台灣證券交易所特有的投資人身分類別資料，將訊息交易者細分為個人、基金、外資和其他法人等不同類型的訊息交易者。 據此，我們討論在不同的產業、交易量和不同市場環境(搓合秒數縮短)下，各個類型投資者在股票市場中私有訊息的特性。
第二部分從台灣50的成分股中挑出10支股票，討論以日內動態訊息交易指標做為高頻程式交易參考依據的可能性。透過日內動態訊息交易指標和未預期報酬判斷訊息交易者在市場上的交易行為並跟隨之，在利用歷史資料進行回測且不考慮交易成本的情況下，多數的股票都有相當好的累積報酬。但在考慮交易成本的情況下，過多的交易次數衍生的大量成本使得如此簡單的概念在現實中並不能獲利。為了建立在現實中可行的交易策略，我們加入三個準則並延長持有的期間以減少交易次數、提高預測價格變動方向的能力還有捕捉較大價格變動趨勢。最終在資料回測的情況下考慮三個準則的交易策略在多數股票中有著超越市場報酬的成果。

關鍵字

訊息交易 ； 高頻數據 ； 交易策略

並列摘要

The paper consists of two parts. In the first part of this research, we evaluate the level of informed trading of TWSE (Taiwan Stock Exchange) listed stocks by using dynamic intraday measure of the probability of informed trading (DPIN measure) published in Chang, Chang and Wang (2014). In addition, with the unique dataset of traders’ types from TWSE, we distinguish the DPIN with four groups, namely, individual, funds, foreign investor and other corporation, to discuss the level of private information in different types of traders, in stock of different industries, under different levels of trading volumes, or under different market regulations (the shrink of time spread between each deal).
In the second part of the paper, we choose 10 stocks from TAI 50 to discuss the feasibility of using DPIN as criteria to practice high-frequency trading. We identify and follow the informed traders by DPIN and the unexpected return. Ignoring trading costs, our results show that most stocks have positive accumulative return. That said, our primitive trading strategies are unprofitable if trading costs are taken into account. We then add three more criteria and extend the holding period of each transaction to decrease the frequency of trading, to improve the ability to predict the changing direction of stock price, and to well-capture the local price trends. This modified trading strategies generate substantially higher profits relative to the buy-and-hold market portfolio, even when transaction costs are taken in account.

並列關鍵字

Informed trade ； High-frequency data ； Trading strategy

參考文獻

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Chang, S., Chang, L., Wang, A., 2014. A dynamic intraday measure of the probability of informed trading and firm-specific return variation J. Empir. Financ. 29, 80-94

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