系統動力學模型於類流感防疫措施效益評估之研究－以H1N1為例

Evaluations on Preventive Measures of Pandemic Influenza by System Dynamics Modeling－A Case Study of H1N1

陳昱利(Yu-Li Chen)

指導教授 ： 楊康宏

中原大學/電機資訊學院/工業與系統工程研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201600566

摘要

數十年來，全世界已逐漸邁入地球村的趨勢，正因如此，流感也隨著發達的交通擴散至世界各地，就如西元2009年的H1N1禽流感及2013年的甲型流感病毒H7N9亞型，對於疫情爆發的各地區在經濟及人力資源方面均造成相當程度的影響，「流感」在人類歷史上屢見不鮮，各國對於流感大爆發的因應措施也越來越有經驗，但病毒的種類如此多變，如何更精準預測疫情走向，並迅速做出決策，對於各國防疫能力的提升是更艱深的考驗。
本研究是依據傳染病學中的倉室模型，應用於系統動力學建立出傳染病模型，其中考慮到不同年齡分層結構進行模擬，並依據台灣於西元2009年H1N1新型流感的疫情實際數據利用Powersim Studio 8 軟體進行模擬，藉由此模型分析不同防疫政策對於各年齡層疫情發展之成效，並進一步得知於疫情發生的早期階段針對青壯年族群進行管制措施及疫苗接種政策，對於控制疫情的成效最為顯著。

關鍵字

系統動力學 ； 倉室模型 ； H1N1新型流感

並列摘要

For the last decades, the world has gradually entered to globalization trends. As the consequence, various influenza epidemics start spreading throughout the world through developed transportation modes; for examples, Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic case in 2009 and avian influenza virus (H7N9) pandemic case in 2013. These occurring events gave adverse impacts on the economic and the human resources. Since influenza was first known as unusual symptoms in the history of humankind, international responses for flu outbreak also continue to become more advanced. However, types of virus are varied. Hence, it is necessary to predict the epidemic accurately and quickly make appropriate decisions to enhance disease prevention and control ability in every country.
This study bases on the epidemiology of the compartment model, and applies to formulate the system dynamics model for infectious diseases. This study considers different age groups and uses the novel data from Taiwan's H1N1 influenza epidemic in 2009. Later on, this study simulates the proposed model using Powersim Studio 8 software. The objective of our research is to analyze the effectiveness of different epidemic prevention policies on various disparity ages. Based on the results, this study found out that vaccination in early ages, particularly in the young adult's group would give significant effect on infection control.

並列關鍵字

System dynamics ； Compartment model ； Influenza H1N1

參考文獻

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