盈餘、現金流量與應計項目預測未來現金流量 能力之研究

Earnings, Cash Flow, Accrual Components and the Prediction of Future Cash Flow

李英麟(Ying-Lin Li)

指導教授 ： 簡俱揚 ； 戚務君

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2002年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200200078

摘要

本研究運用Dechow, Kothari, and Watts (1998)與Barth, Cram, and Nolson (2001)之模型比較總合盈餘與營業現金流量預測未來營業現金流量之相對能力，且進一步將總合盈餘分解為營業現金流量與主要應計項目，測試相對於總合盈餘，盈餘分項資訊是否具備增額資訊內涵。

本研究針對80-89年間125家臺灣上市公司進行實證，實證結果彙總如下：
一、營業現金流量預測未來營業現金流量之能力較總合盈餘為佳，但兩者預測之風險並無顯著差異。
二、盈餘分項資訊預測未來一期營業現金流量之能力較當期及遞延二期總合盈餘為佳。
三、相對於總合盈餘，盈餘分項資訊－營業現金流量與六個主要應計項目預測未來一期營業現金流量具增額資訊內涵。
四、個別應計項目預測未來一期營業現金流量之能力較總合應計為佳。

根據模型與實證結果顯示總合盈餘或現金流量資訊皆非未來現金流量不偏的估計量，因此本研究建議預測未來現金流量必須衡量每一項盈餘分項資訊預測未來現金流量的特性。

關鍵字

現金流量 ； 應計項目 ； 預測未來現金流量 ； 盈餘

並列摘要

Based on the combination of Dechow, Kothari, and Watts (1998) and Barth, Cram, and Nolson (2001) model, the study compares the relative abilities of aggregate earnings and operating cash flows to predict future operating cash flows. We decompose aggregate earnings to operating cash flows and accruals components in order to test the predictive ability of disaggregate earnings relative to aggregate earnings.

Our results are tested on a 125 firm sample over 80-89 in Taiwan capital market. The empirical results are as follow:
1. In predicting future operating cash flows, the operating cash flows is better than aggregate earnings, however, the risk of prediction are the same.
2. In predicting next period operating cash flows, disaggregate earnings is better than current and several lags of aggregate earnings.
3. Disaggregate earnings, operating cash flows and accruals components, significantly enhance predictive ability relative to aggregate earnings.
4. In predicting next period operating cash flows, accruals components is better than aggregate accrual.

The model and empirical results reveal that neither aggregate earnings nor cash
flows is an unbiased predictor of future cash flows. So we suggest that in predicting future cash flows, the properties of disaggregate earnings components should be considered.

並列關鍵字

cash flows ； accrual components ； predict future cash flows ； earnings

參考文獻

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