模糊多準則決策分析於國家太空通訊系統之評估

Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making for Evaluating the National Space Communication Systems

張偉民(Wei-Min Chang)

指導教授 ： 胡宜中

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200700024

摘要

摘 要
為配合未來國家太空通訊發展計畫及國防通訊需求，需儘早從整體性、全面性、系統性的觀瞻來進行國家太空通訊系統構建評估與規劃設計。在國家預算有限並符合建案構想及系統整建計畫的情況下，以「最少的投資來發揮最大的效益，並能滿足太空通訊需求」為目標，以設計選擇適當的太空通訊系統納入編裝，藉以提升國家戰力，是為我國目前最重要的課題。
本研究對相關文獻資料進行探討，考量政治、經濟及敵情威脅等之環境因素，並整合目前實際從事太空通訊設計研發之不同群體專家意見，建立了一套完整的「國家太空通訊系統」評估層級架構及三個可行的替代方案。並分別針對在太空通訊上具高度專業素養之軍方（中科院）及民間（太空中心）共二十五位專家進行問卷調查，藉由層級分析法(AHP)，求得評估準則的權重值，以瞭解各評估構面與準則的相對重要程度；並以模糊(Fuzzy)績效值及理想解類似度偏好順序評估法（TOPSIS），求出替代方案間的偏好排序。研究結果分述如下：
一、整體而言，專家們認為國家太空通訊系統評選較為重要的構面均為功能性、運用性兩項，其次為風險性、效益性兩項；這表示軍方及民間專家較注重功(性)能實際應用面的表現，且具有一致性的共識。
二、不論軍方或民間，在各評估準則之重要程度(權重)前三項中，主控能力、網狀化作戰與星(船)載處理是三個較為重要的準則；亦均有一致性的共識。
三、本研究最終目標乃經由模糊理論及理想解類似度偏好順序評估法，選出最佳國家
太空通訊系統之替代方案。經擇優分析得出獲得方案的偏好排序依次為同步軌道衛星、平流層飛船及低軌道衛星。此與原先預期方案相符，可信度極高，顯示模糊多準則決策於國家太空通訊系統評估之有效性，並可作為國家後續進行太空通訊設計的重要依據與決策參考。
四、本研究所建立之層級架構及準則，能有條理的讓決策者容易掌握太空通訊系統的關鍵因素，並瞭解各項評估因素之相對重要程度，使決策者在進行系統規劃時能從全方位管理角度來思考問題，進而避免只憑〝經驗法則〞或〝做了再說〞的迷失，以做出正確的抉擇而降低風險。

關鍵字

層級分析法 ； 太空通訊 ； 理想解類似度偏好順序評估法 ； 多準則決策分析 ； 模糊理論

並列摘要

ABSTRACT

In order to comply with the future national space communications planning and national defense communications requirements, it is necessary to proceed evaluations and planning designs as soon as possible from integral, global, and systematic views to establish a complete space communication system. Under the circumstances of limited national budgets and the requirements of compliance with the program concept and system construction, nowadays, it is the most important topic to design and select a suitable space communication system on service and to promote the national war power on the basic goal of “To get the best profits and satisfy the space communication requirements by least expenditures. ”
This research establishes one objective, complete and integral evaluation hierarchy structure for the “national space communication system” and three alternatives through collecting and exploring of the related papers and materials by considering political, economic, and the adversary threats environmental factors, and integrating opinions from different categorized experts now engaging in space communication design and research. Moreover, twenty-five experts now engaging on space communications works from two famous institutes of the military (CSIST) and the civil (NSPO) are invited to participate in this questionnaire, and through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) we get the weighted values of various evaluation principles to realize the relative importance level of all evaluation aspects and principles. Moreover, through the Fuzzy theory and TOPSIS method, the preference ordering among these alternatives is available. The research consequences are as follows:

1. In general speaking, the main concerned aspects about the national space communications alternatives are functionality and utility; the secondary are risk and efficiency. And it shows that both the military and the civil experts, with consistent consensus, are more concerned about the function (and performance) when applied in pragmatic applications.
2. No matter it’s the military or the civil, the most important (weighting) former three evaluation items, i.e., autonomous control capability, network centric warfare, and satellite on board processing (or HAP) are three more important principles. Moreover, these three items show that they have the consistent consensus.
3. The ultimate goal of this research is to choose the best optimal space communication alternative through AHP, Fuzzy theory and TOPSIS method adopted. The best tradeoff alternative is first geometric elliptic orbit synchronous satellite (GEO), second high altitude platform (HAP), and last low elliptic orbit (LEO) satellites sequentially. The resulted alternative is in compliance with the anticipated and is highly credible. It shows the effectiveness of this thesis entitled “Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making for Evaluating the National Space Communication Systems”, and it can be also a vital base for practical national space communications design and planning in the near future.
4. The hierarchy structure and principles established from this research can let the decision-makers grasp easily the key factors of space communication systems logically, realize the relative importance levels of every evaluation factor, think about problems from all-aspect management points whenever proceeding system planning, and furthermore, avoid the myth of “experience law” or “just do it” and take accurate decision to decrease every possible risks.

並列關鍵字

TOPSIS ； Space communications ； AHP ； Fuzzy theory ； Multi- Criteria Decision Making

參考文獻

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