中國與印度外人直接投資因素比較之探討

The Investigation of Comparison of Foreign Direct Investment in Mainland China and India

黃瓊慧(Chiung-Hui Huang)

指導教授 ： 胡為善

中原大學/商學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200700744

摘要

本研究旨在探討外人直接投資中國與印度之情形與影響因素，分別以市場需求、基礎建設、政府財政、國際貿易與人力資源五大構面與16項變數進行實證研究。實證研究的期間為1979~2005共二十七年。主要欲提供各項資訊給台商，使其在實際投資中印兩國前能夠瞭解與認識該國是否能夠滿足其投資需求。
本研究建立「橫斷面與時間序列合併資料」Panel data實證模型，並採用隨機效果方式，進行中國與印度兩國外人直接投資因素的實證研究。在中國與印度個別研究中，則採用普通最小平方法（OLS）模型進行分析。欲找出外人對中國與印度兩地的投資因素為何。
經Panel data隨機效果實證分析結果，發現「鐵路貨運量」、「通貨膨脹率」、「一年存款利率」、「匯率」、「外債」、「教育程度」、「罷工次數」七項變數對外人直接投資有一定程度的顯著性。普通最小平方法（OLS）模型個別研究中以「鐵路貨運量」、「通貨膨脹率」、「外債」對中國的外人直接投資有顯著影響效果，而「匯率」、「教育程度」對印度的外人直接投資有一定程度的顯著性。
本研究得出結論認為，政府在經濟發展的態度與積極性，對於跨國公司欲進行外人直接投資的區位決定扮演重要的角色，外人直接投資的政策不應獨立運作，而是應該與其他總體經濟政策結合，來創造優良的投資環境。如此才能吸引更多的外人直接投資，進而促進經濟發展。
另一方面本研究認為國際化的趨勢台商必須進入全球佈局，而投資地區應該不再侷限於中國，近年來印度經濟發展迅速，美、德、英、荷蘭等國早已進入印度市場，東亞的日、韓也意識到印度的無限潛力商機，紛紛開始積極經營當地，台商不可忽視印度經濟發展所帶來的機會，可重新思考新的投資決策。

關鍵字

Panel data隨機效果模型 ； 外人直接投資(FDI) ； 印度 ； 中國 ； 普通最小平方法(OLS)模型

並列摘要

This study examines the impact factors of the foreign direct investment (FDI) on Mainland China and India by investigating from five different aspects including “market demand”, “basic infrastructure”, “government finance”, “international trade” and “labor source”, as well as sixteen subsidiary variables. The sampling period consists of twenty-seven years from 1979 to 2005. The main purpose of this work is to provide Taiwanese businessmen with available information to judge whether their investments in these two countries are worthy or not before they make the final decision.
This study applies random effect model to explore the FDI in Mainland China and India by setting the pooling data from both cross-section and time series. This work also uses the Original Least Square (OLS) model as an analysis method to explore the impact factors in FDI in Mainland China and India respectively.
The empirical results indicate that the following seven parameters：“railway freight”, “inflation rate”,“one-year saving deposit rate”, “foreign exchange rate”, “national liability”, “level of education” and “number of strike” have significant relationships with FDI in both countries. The findings also show that “railway freight”, “inflation rate” and “national liability” have significant relationship with FDI in Mainland China only. However, “Foreign exchange rate” and “level of education” have significant relationship with FDI in India only.
Additionally, this study finds that the attitude and the enthusiasm of the government toward economic development play an important role in making FDI polices. The work deems that the policies of FDI should not be planned and operated individually, but should closely match with other macroeconomic policies to provide good investment environments to attract extra FDI in order to activate economic development.
Finally, this study suggests that the trend of economic globalization has forced Taiwanese businessmen to seek a worldwide business arrangement. However, the attention of the businessmen should not concentrate on Mainland China only. The rapid economic development in India has already attracted the businessmen in United States, Germany, England, Netherlands, Japan and Korea to enter the Indian market by one after another. Taiwanese businessmen should not overlook the opportunities in India, and should reconsider their investment strategy based on both Mainland China and India.

並列關鍵字

Panel Data ； Mainland China ； India ； Original Least Square (OLS) Model ； Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) ； Random Effect Model.

參考文獻

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