行銷活動的大數法則研究

行銷人員所設計出來的行銷活動(marketing activity)，影響著消費者的決策不單只有購買與否，還包括購買的目的、購買的方式及購買後的影響力等。此處所述的購買並不侷限於購買產品，服務亦涵括在內。這些行銷所帶來的影響將會再影響企業。例如，電信業者優惠的群組暢打方案設計，吸引顧客以成群的方式申辦該電信業者的門號，此時顧客成群的影響力相較個體的影響力，又會有所差異了。在網路外部性(network externality)的存在下，這群顧客選擇該電信公司的服務後，也有可能因為網內互打的關係，繼續對其他的消費者再產生影響，同時也改變了市場上競爭的速度了。本研究嘗試以隨機模擬的方式來探討不同情況下，企業和市場的競爭變化。我們屏除人是理性(rational)或非理性的假設，並且設定消費者購買皆為隨機(random)，模擬上千次，最後再求其平均，以得到符合大數法則(law of large number)所述，趨近真實的結果。在假設條件下，設定變數，觀察店家、廠商或市場的表現，變數包含，消費者機率、市場容量、消費者購買方式、廠商間價格戰與否、網絡的平台策略(platform strategy)等，以上述變數進行隨機模擬分析，最後獲得結論如下： 1. 當店家推出行銷活動提高顧客的消費意願時，會提升店家的存活與競爭力。 2. 店家推出行銷活動提高顧客的消費意願，會提升店家的收益。 3. 市場容量越大，廠商的收益則越高。 4. 消費者的獨立非群體性購買行為，會提高店家的相對存活及競爭力；消費者的群體購買行為，會降低店家的相對存活及競爭力。 5. 廠商間進行價格競爭，會降低店家的相對存活及競爭力。 6. 中華電信，大網絡，會以開放平台策略提高用戶數；台灣大哥大，小網絡，會以封閉平台策略提高用戶數。

關鍵字

理性；大數法則；網路外部性；平台策略；行銷活動

並列摘要

All marketing activity designed by the marketing department not only influences consumer’s decision of purchasing, it also has power on his/her intention of buying, method of purchasing, and moreover the after-sale effect on others. Meaning of purchasing in this essay not only refers to physical items, but also services included. These marketing activities have significant influence on other industries. For instance, telecommunication providers, who attract consumers to sign up with them as a group by serving great promotions especially for groups. Within arising influence of network externality, these group consumers not only affect people surrounding them to join the same network, they also speed up the competitions among companies. This essay aims to discuss, with randomness and under different circumstances, the change in industry and market competitions. In order to obtain most accurate result by making corresponding to the law of large number, we exclude the factor of rationalism/irrationalism, and assume “all consumers purchasing is random” then imitate more than thousand times of scenario, at the end to find the average. Presumption is with constant factors to observe the behavior of retailers, vendors and the market, with variables such as the purchasing probability, market size, consuming method, competitive price among vendors, and platform strategy and so on. The final results are as following: 1. While retailers have promotions to encourage shopping behavior, they also increase the survivability and competitiveness of retailers. 2. While retailers have promotions to encourage shopping behavior, they also increase profit. 3. While the market size is expanding, the retailers receive higher profit. 4. While consumer shops as an individual, he/she increases existence and relatively competitiveness among retailers; however while consumer shops as a group, he/she reduces the survivability and competitiveness among retailers. 5. While vendors attract consumers by pricing, they lessen the survivability and competitiveness among each other. 6. While larger-scale-network providers, such as Chunghwa Telecom, usually increase number of users by open platform strategy, while smaller-scale-network providers, such as Taiwan Mobile, they maintain their users by closed platform strategy.