供應鏈中斷風險決策之研究

The study of the decision strategy confronting disruption risk in supply chain

鄭朝仁(Chao-Jen Cheng)

指導教授 ： 張國華

中原大學/電機資訊學院/工業與系統工程研究所/博士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201600062

摘要

回顧近年來由於世界各地的重大突發災變事件頻傳，不論是自然災害、人為破壞、公共衛生、經濟風暴、地緣政治不穩定等所帶來的風險，隨著企業供應鏈向全球化延伸，突發事件所產生直接或間接性的影響已經超越了地理位置的限制，企業供應鏈面臨著各類型無法預測的突發中斷意外，其所帶來的潛藏危機與毀壞性的嚴重後果常是企業難以預測與想像的。因此，面對供應鏈突發中斷事件風險，企業如何主動採取有效的應變策略來減少重大的損失以及如何展現快速的恢復力已成為業界及學術界熱門關注的課題。有鑑於此，本文探討近十餘年來全球供應鏈中斷風險管理相關文獻及最佳典範實例的危機處理方式進行深度解析，並重新檢視供應鏈流程的脆弱環節，將管理中斷風險策略歸納為供應中斷策略、生產中斷策略、運輸中斷策略、需求中斷策略等四大主要策略、二十二個次要策略以及欲評選層級策略作為減災、整備、應變與復原等四個連續解決方案的行動決策組合，從而歸納建構了一個管理中斷風險之解決方案評選層級策略的決策組合架構圖。
在實證研究方面，本文以特別重視供應鏈發生機率低且高嚴重後果中斷事件的航空製造業作為研究對象。研究結果發現應用直覺模糊熵權重搭配品質屋(HOQ)的中心相關矩陣評價方式，作為管理供應鏈中斷風險之解決方案的多準則決策方法，經專家確認具有不錯的綜合效果；另外我們也發現將專家評選為中、高重要度的次要策略重新歸納成制度、技術、管理、執行等四個策略構面的決策組合優於原四大主要策略的決策組合更適合作為解決方案之行動決策組合(repetoire)。基於此，應用本研究決策組合架構搭配直覺模糊熵權重與相關矩陣之多準則決策方法，可提供有意建立韌性供應鏈的製造業者管理中斷風險評選層級策略作為連續解決方案的最佳決策組合之指導方針與重要參考。

關鍵字

供應鏈管理 ； 突發中斷 ； 風險管理 ； 多準則決策 ； 直覺模糊熵權重

並列摘要

In recent years, the frequent disasters all over the world caused unpredictable disruptions of globalized supply chain and resulted in serious consequences to those companies running the global businesses. Because of this, how enterprises can adopt active and effective response strategies to minimize losses due to broken supply chains, and how they can effectively maintain supply chain resilience, has become an important topic for both industry and the academic researchers. In such view, this article reviewed the research on disruption risk management of global supply chain and made in-depth analysis and learning from best practices in the industry on dealing with disruption risk in the recent decade. This study thus summarized the foregoing literature and best practices in crisis management, this paper attempted establish a hierarchical framework includes four primary strategies of supply disruption, production disruption, transportation disruption, demand disruption；22 secondary strategies；and four solutions of mitigation, readiness, response and recovery. The purpose of this study is to provide the supply-chain owners a decision framework for delivering the planning strategic and contiguous solution to confront disruption risk in global supply chain.
This framework was tested and evaluated on a local aerospace manufacturer which is particularly sensitive to low probability - high consequence disruption risk in supply chain. The study's findings indicate that application of IFEW with the correlation matrix method to MCDM in dealing with the risk of supply chain disruption yields excellent results, and can provide enterprises wishing to establish a resilient supply chains important guideline in the selection of an optimal decision-making portfolio (ODMP).

並列關鍵字

Supply chain management ； Disruption ； Risk Management ； Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) ； Intuitionistic fuzzy entropy weight (IFEW)

參考文獻

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