自信水準、盈餘預測型態與投資決策關係研究

A study of confidence level, earning forecast and investment decision

邱碧蓮(Pi-Lian Chiu)

指導教授 ： 劉立倫

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201200340

摘要

本文旨在探討自信水準、盈餘預測型態與投資決策關係研究，即投資人在資訊不確定下，能以CEO估計出公司盈餘預測型態的程度，是否會有不同的投資決筞，由於不同類型的投資人，其自信心理特質亦不同，進而產生不同的投資決策行為模式。接續再藉由問卷調查方式以取得資料，並運用ANOVA和MANOVA模式進行實證方析。

本研究以有購買股票經驗的投資人為受試對象，藉以分析投資人的投資決策情形，實證結果發現自信水準、盈餘預測型態與投資決策三個特質具有顯著影響效果，再以ANOVA來檢測CEO不論是以何種盈餘預測型態，對預測信心、投資風險、投資意願、售出意願均達顯著效果，投資者自信水準與投資行為不論在預測信心、投資風險、投資意願、售出意願，均達顯著差異性，再以MANOVA模式來檢測投資者自信水準與投資行為交互作用對投資意願、賣出意願，均一致性差異性。

關鍵字

自信水準 ； 投資決策 ； 盈餘預測型態 ； 資訊不確定性

並列摘要

This study aimed to explore the correlations among confidence level, earnings forecast pattern, and decision making (i.e. under information uncertainty, whether the investor as the CEO is able to estimate the company’s earnings forecast pattern and whether or not different investment decisions are produced). Different types of investors possess different self-confidence related psychological characteristics, thus producing different investment decision-making patterns. Data was obtained through the questionnaire survey method, and ANOVA and MANOVA models were adopted to engage in empirical analysis.

In this study, with the investors that had stock share purchase experiences as the study subjects, the investors’ investment decision-making situations were analyzed. The empirical results show that three characteristics, namely, confidence level, earnings forecast pattern, and investment decision, had significantly positive impacts. ANOVA was then adopted, and it was found that regardless of the type of earnings forecast pattern, there was a significant impact on the CEO’s forecast confidence, investment risk, willingness to invest, and willingness to sell. Further, the MANOVA model was adopted to detect the differences in the consistency between the interactions of the investors’ confidence level and investment behaviors and their willingness to invest and sell.

並列關鍵字

confidence level ； investment decision ； Keywords: information uncertainty ； earnings forecast pattern

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