中文摘要 臺灣汽車産業隨著産業競爭的激化,以及消費主義的抬頭,品牌間的競爭已經由過去的售前服務,走向加入售後服務的全面性競爭。因此,汽車代理商爲了提供顧客更優質的售後服務,紛紛在後勤作業上的軟硬體方面投入鉅資進行整合,以縮短顧客維修時的等待時間及提升維修的便利性。汽車代理商的零件部門在整體售後服務工作流程中扮演零件供應的重要角色,如何做好汽車零件的存貨管理,提高零件供應率,以快速反應市場的需求,這是零件部門的重要課題。 汽車産業隨著新車種的不斷推陳出新,以及消費者需求的多樣性,也同樣使得汽車售後服務零件的生命週期變短,產品差異化需求增加。汽車代理商在利用傳統的預測方法做銷售預測時,往往難以掌握市場的變化。因此本研究就是從衆多零件項目中選取符合穩定成長、穩定衰退、季節變動,以及不規則需求等四種趨勢條件的汽車零件作爲樣本,透過業界慣用的移動平均法及指數平滑法作一比較與實務驗證,最後確認指數平滑法在四個設定條件下有較佳的表現。 近來,CPFR的協同規畫、預測與補貨的機制已有汽車同業導入運作,對其建立綿密的上下游供應鏈關係,以及提供顧客更優質的服務,有著相當大的助益,因此,本研究也彙整同業的經驗,作為汽車代理商作爲未來管理改善的參考。
ABSTRACT The automobile industry of Taiwan is as the sharpening of industry's competition, and the consumerism is raised. The competition among the brands has already been changed from before sales extending to join the comprehension competition of after-sales service. For the sake of providing the premium after-sales service to the customers by the automobile agents, all placed heavy investments in software and hardware facilities on the logistic operation. This will shorten the waiting time for customers while for servicing and improve the convenience of maintenance to customers. The automobile agent's part department acts as an important role in the whole after-sale service workflow. However, this is an important subject of a parts department to manage a well stock of spare parts and upgrade the supplying rate of the parts to meet the demand of the fast reaction market. The automobile products change with each passing day and the variety of consumers' demands with the result that make the life cycle of the service parts shortened and increase the difference demand of the products. The automobile agents are while utilizing the traditional prediction method to do sales forecast, it is often difficult to grasp the change of the market. Therefore, this study selects automobile parts from four kinds of trend conditions which accords with growing up steadily, declines steadily, seasonal move and irregular demand to be the samples. To compare with the practical through the moving average methods and the exponential smoothing methods for proving, finally confirmed that the results show that the double exponential smoothing method is superior to other forecasting methods. Recently, there is already the same trade of automobiles that has channeled into operation in the mechanism of predicting and replenishment the goods in coordination with the plan of CPFR. This will benefit to establish a careful relation of the supply chain and offer a more premium service to customers. Consequently, this research gathers together the whole experience of the same trade or business in order to offer the automobile agents a managing reference in the future.
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