以網絡效果與基因演算法探討iPod與iTunes成長之雙擴散模型

Dual-diffusion Model with Network Effect in the iPod and iTunes:An Application of Genetic Algorithm

朱紘寬(Hung-Kuan Chu)

指導教授 ： 曲祉寧

中原大學/商學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/CYCU.2006.00468

摘要

在所有探究 Apple 公司這幾年具有指標意義的新產品 --- iPod 與 iTunes --- 的文獻中，鮮有研究對 iPod 與 iTunes 之所以成功背後的協調機制進行研究， 並且提供實證探討。周志隆 (2005) 透過個案研究的分析發現，網絡效果 (network effect) 能對人們理解 iPod 與 iTunes的成功發展提供全面而且根本的認識。本論文根據周志隆 (2005) 的研究，結合管理學中常用的擴散模型 (diffusion model) 發展研究構面探究網絡效果，利用過去幾年 iPod, iTunes, Apple 公司合法的 MP3 銷售，以及推估盜版 MP3 的數據，等各項數據進行實證研究，試圖探索 Apple 公司究竟透過哪些策略，成功的驅動 iPod 與 iTunes 擴散的網絡效果。從研究取向上，本研究一方面說明了擴散模型可以作為探索網絡效果的研究構面；另一方面，我們發現基因演算法優於傳統擴散模型的實證工具。而在 iPod 與 iTunes 現象的研究發現上，我們證實了周志隆 (2005) 的觀點，那就是多樣化的歌曲提供的確對 iPod 與 iTunes 的成功擴散具有重要的作用，此外我們證實，大量盜版 MP3 更強化了上述的發展。這和 Apple 執行長 Jobs 認為大容量的 iPod 是 MP3 播放器的關鍵成功因素不謀而合。另外，從實證數據中我們也發現，iPod 與 iTunes 在發展的初期，的確具有相互加乘的因果循環效果。這種效果在發展的初期是 iPod 對 iTunes 的影響較大；而在相關產品發展成熟之後，則是 iTunes 對 iPod 的影響較大。

關鍵字

擴散模型 ； iPod & iTunes ； 互補品 ； 基因演算法 ； 網絡效果

並列摘要

Among all research that study symbolic new products of Apple company recent years－iPod and iTunes, there are seldom research study up coordination mechanism behind the success of iPod and iTunes, and provide practical study.Chou (2005) through case study found that network effect can provide overall and fundamental cognition for people to understand the success of iPod and iTunes. This study bases on Chou (2005), and combines diffusion model which is used frequently in management to develop research concepts to study network effect, and use the data of legal MP3 sales of iPod, iTunes and Apple company, and estimate the data of illegal MP3 etc., to proceed practice research, and try to explore the strategies that Apple company uses to drive the network effect of iPod and iTunes successfully. On the one hand, this study explain that diffusion model can be the research concept of studying network effect, and on the other hand we find that Genetic Algorithm is superior to practical tools of traditional diffusion models. About iPod and iTunes research findings, we confirm the opinion of Chou (2005)－that is, providing variative songs indeed has important effect on the success diffusion of iPod and iTunes. Besides, we confirm that a great deal of illegal MP3 strengthens the above development, and this is consistent of the consideration of the CEO of Apple－Jobs, he considers that high-capacity iPod is the key success factor of MP3 player. Additionally, through practical data, we also find that in the developmental infancy, iPod and iTunes indeed exist causal loop effect。This effect is that in the developmental infancy, and after relevant products develop maturely, iTunes influences bigger on iPod.

並列關鍵字

Complement ； Genetic Algorithm ； Difussion model ； iPod & iTunes ； Network effect

參考文獻

周志隆（2005），網路系絡下之平台發展策略，國立臺灣大學商學研究所博士論文。

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