氣候變遷調適策略半定量脆弱度評估方法之探討

Study on Methods of Semi-Quantitative Vulnerability Assessment for Climate Change Adaptation

李昆學(Kuen-Xue Li)

指導教授 ： 陳皆儒

國立暨南國際大學/科技學院/土木工程學系/碩士(2016年)

摘要

我國因應氣候變遷自99年起啟動縣市層級氣候變遷調適計畫，現今已邁入第二階段計畫；氣候變遷調適策略擬定之各步驟中，脆弱度評估為其中承先啟後的重要階段。脆弱度評估迄今尚未有一套可適用於各種領域及尺度的評估方法與工具，本論文透過行動研究發展出一套可兼顧量化科研以及質化教育意涵的氣候變遷調適策略半定量脆弱度評估方法，並透過量化方法進行對比探討。
本論文提出的半定量脆弱度評估方法以專家評議法為基礎，進行深度的專家主觀意見調查，透過議題討論與跨域工作坊，最終產出(1)領域脆弱度質化評估、(2)關鍵議題與(3)半定量鄉鎮市脆弱度分級圖三大成果。量化方法以德爾菲-階層分析法進行評估，選定公務界、學術界及利害關係人共7位專家透過德爾菲─階層分析法得出25個指標之權重，計算的量化評估成果得出鄉鎮市脆弱度排序，得以進行後續比較。
經比較評估發現：半定量模式容易因參與專家重視度、業主期望心理、會議推動團隊的議題熟悉度及既有文獻走向而可能有所偏誤；量化模組在實際數據收集困難度、數據間是否有共變異性、數據可靠度等使得量化模組評估結果可能無法忠實反映議題狀態。兩法上專家系統的選用是否有涵蓋到議題的各種面向也容易造成類型錯誤，研究上應做好詳細規劃。透過本論文之探討與比較，建議可將以德爾菲-階層分析法進行量化評估成果於跨域工作坊完成領域脆弱度分級評分後，提供給領域專家進行綜合討論，並針對必要的鄉鎮市脆弱度分級進行修正。

關鍵字

脆弱度 ； 半定量評估 ； 專家評議法 ； 氣候變遷調適 ； 德爾菲階層分析法

並列摘要

The preparation of climate change adaptation plan at the county level in Taiwan was started in 2000, and the initiative has moved into the second phase as of 2015. Vulnerability assessment is an important step to be carried out in the comprehensive procedure for drafting adaptation strategies. Various approaches have been proposed for the vital step of vulnerability assessment. Different schemes were used in different counties in Taiwan, when the adaptation plan studies were conducted. It is of great interest to investigate for a rational approach for vulnerability assessment. This study is intended to address this important topic through results of two different types of methods, including one semi-quantitative approach and the other quantitative.
The semi-quantitative approach is based on an Expert Assessment Method (ESA). The elicitation of objective expert opinion is obtained through series of in-depth discussions and workshops of solicited experts. Main results of this approach include (1) qualitative vulnerability report, (2) key issues of the studied subject area, and (3) comparative vulnerability grouping. The quantitative approach used in this study is a combined Delphi-AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method. Seven experts were selected for the process of obtaining expert opinions throughout this part of study. Factors to be adopted for the quantitative investigation were first screened by the expert opinions, and then weights for each factor were estimated through results of AHP questionnaire. Finally, the vulnerability index was computed using statistical data of factors and the associated AHP weights, and comparative vulnerability ranking can be obtained.
It is found that both approaches are not perfect. Results of the semi-quantitative approach is likely affected by factors including level of expert participation, preference of authorities, level of issue familiarity of the operating team and else. Whereas results of the quantitative approach are easily affected by the availability and reliability of statistical data of significant factors. This study proposed a scheme that combined the use of both the quantitative analysis results and the semi-quantitative procedures. Should time be permitted, this proposed procedure should yield rational and well-thought assessment of vulnerability.

並列關鍵字

Vulnerability ； Expert-Opinion Elicitation ； Climate Change Adaptation ； Delphi method ； Analytic Hierarchy Process

參考文獻

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