防禦與霸權：中國對東協軍事交流戰略的分析

冷戰結束後，中國戰略重心由北方疆域轉向東南區域，加強海疆的經略，冀望突破美國為主導的「扇形戰略」圍堵架構，並積極將勢力擴展到西太平洋的南北海域，對台灣及其他亞太國家的海上生命線與國家安全，都構成了實質性的威脅。近年來中國軍隊高速發展，這種趨勢非常明顯地直接影響到中國周邊國家乃至世界強權的安全利益。美國、日本、印度以及俄羅斯對此一趨勢發展非常關心，東南亞國家也都為此感到擔憂；中國軍事能力發展難以預料，這也使得「中國威脅論」在國際間有甚囂塵上之勢。對中國而言，與東協軍事交流符合抵抗美國「霸權主義」的侵略擴張與威脅下，所進行的一種戰略性合作。中國與東協在國家利益、區域安全、經貿互動中存在既合作又衝突的可能。中國期望透過與東協的軍事交流，展現優勢軍力，來威懾東協國家。另一方面，藉此管道刺探美國軍事實力及瞭解其戰略意圖，改善與加速其軍事現代化之進程。對東協而言，中國威脅陰影不去，造成東協國家進行軍備競賽，來增強區域防衛之力量。顯見東協國家仍維持對中國傳統的「一手言和、一手言戰」的兩手外交策略。近年來，東協各國由於經濟繁榮與發展，在全球一片裁減兵力中，反而大幅的擴充軍備，及時調整相對關係和戰略，並利用東協相關組織增強內部凝聚力和決策的自主性，掌握地區事務的主導權，以維護本身在此地區的影響力。本文欲藉由雙方軍事交流來觀察對雙方關係產生甚麼變化？檢視矛盾與衝突的因素會對雙方產生何種影響？中國如何藉由軍事透明度及交流來消除東協「中國威脅論」的疑慮？最後探討中國與東協友好關係的建立，對台灣會產生何種影響？

關鍵字

東協；軍事交流；積極防禦；區域霸權；中國威脅論

並列摘要

After the Cold War, China’s strategic foundation has shifted from northern area to south-east ocean which is hoping to break the sector strategy leading by America and has become real threat in Asia-Pacific zone. In recent year, China’s military growing by high speed and this tendency is under very obvious condition. This tendency influence China’s surrounding countries and even the world security interest. The USA, Japan, India, and the Russian care about the tendency, ASEAN also worry about it, because China’s military development ability is unexpected. This also enable “ China threat theory” widely reported or speculated in the international nations.. For China, to have military exchange with ASEAN corresponds to resist the hegemony expansion and threaten of U.S. China and ASEAN exist possibility of coordination and conflict in national interests, regional security and interaction of economics. China tried to via military exchange with ASEAN to show the great military power. On the other side, China uses the tunnel to understand military power and strategic plan of the U.S., so as to improve and accelerate duration of their military modernization. For ASEAN, the Chinese threat shadow causes ASEAN countries to carry on the arms race in order to enforce the strength of region defense. It's obvious that ASEAN still maintained the original two way diplomatic policy of “makes peace but also make combat readiness” to China. In recent years, ASEAN expended the military, because of their blossom of economics, and adjusted relationship and strategy, as well as enforced internal cohesion and autonomy of decision-making by internal organizations to maintain their influence in the region. This article is to observe the changes of bilateral relationship by military exchange. What kind of influence to booth sides by inspecting the factors of contradiction and conflict? How China eliminate ASEAN's anxiety by military transparency and the exchange. Finally we will discuss what kind of influence to Taiwan by the establishment of friendly relationship between China and ASEAN.