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  • 學位論文

台中市人口老化變遷與都市化發展之研究

指導教授 : 張國楨
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摘要


本研究旨在以空間分析的角度,來研究台中市人口老化空間差異及其時空的變遷;並以人地關係的觀點,分析台中市人口老化變遷與都市化發展之關係。 本文以台中市為研究區,分別有三種研究單位:全市、區和里,研究其人口老化與都市化發展的關係。1.全市--老年人口比、老化指標與老年人口扶養比從民國49年以後一直到現在,則逐年在老化中,但到民國90年人口年齡結構皆尚未進入「老年型」的階段。而三種人口老化指標與三級產業、土地利用作Pearson相關分析,分析結果:三種人口老化指標與第二、三級產業、建築用地及交通用地有高度相關。2.各區--從民國65年八個區的人口年齡結構全處於「年輕型」的階段;到民國80年,全部進入「成年型」階段;到了民國90,在市中心及其周圍行政區-中區、東區、西區和北區的老年人口比在7%以上,已是「老年型」的階段;外圍的西、南、北三個屯區及南區則正處於「成年型」階段。而老年人口比與三級產業、土地利用作Pearson相關分析,分析結果:八個區皆與土地利用有高度相關性,但都市化發展已飽和或趨於飽和地區與三級產業相關性較低。3.各里--民國79年的老年人口比達到7%的里,大部分集中在市中心周圍之北方和東方的里。民國85年時,達到老化標準的里已由原本的市中心周圍之北方和東方,往西擴散,且市中心本身也呈現人口老化現象。民國90年時,達到老化標準的里已由市中心逐漸向周圍擴散,尤其是向南方。再採用非階層式集群分析中的K平均數法進行分類,分為3個集群,且依據其都市化發展程度及達到老化標準里的百分比去命名,集群一為都市化已發展的老化區;集群二為都市化未發展的老化區;集群三為都市化發展中的未老化區,並以Arc View3.2展現其空間分布。再以集群一之都市化已發展的老化區為分析範圍,採複迴歸分析台中市各里老年人口比與各類別土地利用的關係,得到結果:商業密度、工業密度和住宅密度對老年人口比的解釋力可達0.64。 結論:台中市人口老化程度越來越嚴重,達到老化標準的里之分布範圍也逐漸由市中心向外擴散,且人口老化有空間聚集現象,包含兩個人口老化聚集的地區,但其都市化發展階段卻不同。另外台中市人口老化與都市化發展的土地利用類別有密切關係。盼本研究結果可作為人口地理學或老人學一個研究基礎和方向,及提供規劃有關老人醫療服務設施、安養中心或銀髮族住宅等的公私部門者一個設立或發展依據。

並列摘要


The present study aims to investigate first, the spatial differential of population aging and second, the relationship between population aging and urbanization in Taichung City. The village was used as the basic unit of the analysis of the spatial differential of population. The author obtained the data of the population of all the villages in Taichung City from the Household Registration Office. The author constructed three graphs of the spatial differential based on the data of 1990, 1996, and 2001. According to the maps, there are three findings. (1) In 1990, the villages with over 7 % of the population over the age of 65 were mainly in the northern and eastern area outside the central business districts (CBD). (2) In 1996, the CBD and the some of the villages in the western side of the city also had aged population over 7%. (3) In 2001, the population aging also occurred in some of the southern villages. The author use non-hierarchical cluster analysis (K-means method) to further divide the 223 villages into three clusters, and named cluster one as urbanized and population aged district, cluster two as unurbanizied and population aged, and cluster three as urbanizing and population not-aged. The Person Correlation Analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the percentage of aged population and industry structure as well as the land use of the city. The result shows that the population aging has positive correlation with the ratio of population of manufacture industry, service industry, as well as the ratio of built-up land and transportation land. The Person Correlation Analysis was also used to analyze the relationship between the percentage of aged population and industry structure as well as the land use of the eight districts. The result shows that the population aging has positive correlation with the ratio of built-up land and transportation land of each district. As to the village scope, the Multiple Regression Analysis was used to examine the relationship between the percentage of aged population and commercial and service density, manufacture density, and residential density in the 155 villages in the first cluster. The result shows that the combination of commercial and service density, manufacture density, and residential density is capable to explain the percentage of aged population to 0.64. There are two conclusions of this study. (1) The degree of the population aging has been more and more serious, and there is a trend that aged population spread gradually from CBD to suburban. Spatial agglomeration of aged population is also found in the city. (2) The population aging and urbanization in Taichung City have positive correlation. This study provides a new scope for further demographic research as well as valuable information for the future welfare policy for aged population.

參考文獻


65、台中市工務局編(1997):台中市86年都市計畫年報,台中市政府工務局。
69、台中市工務局編(1989):台中市都市計畫年報,台中市政府工務局。
35、 章英華(1995):台灣都市的內部結構:社會生態與歷史的探討,巨流圖書公司。
3. Robert F.Wiseman(1979):Location and environment of elderly population,University of Chicago,Chapter 2,p.24.
28、 陳小蘭、陳維斌(1996):都市發展過程之研究-以台中市為例,都市與計劃,

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