颱洪災害對流域地區脆弱度影響之研究－以高屏溪流域為個案地區

The effect of Typhoon on the Vulnerabilityin the Kaoping River Basin

吳振瑋(Chen-Wei Wu)

指導教授 ： 黃書禮

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/都市計劃研究所/碩士(2011年)

摘要

根據聯合國環境規劃暑(UNEP)2009年度報告，亞洲是世界中受自然災害和氣候影響最大的熱點(hotspot)之一；聯合國氣候變遷綱要公約(UNFCCC)於2007年的報告中，便點明了極端降雨事件的影響範疇，將導致飢餓及易患疾病、收入與生計損失的情形劇增，從而威脅人類的生存福祉。位於亞洲的台灣屬於海島型國家，其自然與社經型態分布較為複雜多樣；當地方面對洪災可能發生的突發性及不確定性之時，各種因素的負面影響終將累積成抽象且看不見的脆弱度。
本研究為了解颱洪災害所形成的脆弱度對於地方資源條件的影響，以設定高屏溪流域作為研究對象，並基於洪災之形成來探討暴露、敏感度、調適性、脆弱度等理論概念；再透過高屏溪流域災害模式的邏輯確立，以主成份分析協助洪災脆弱度指標變項在於主要因子的歸納及解釋；待指標所歸納出的共同因子後，輔以GIS空間疊合分析來進行脆弱程度之比較，並將洪災產生之前後因果關係對於脆弱度等抽象概念予以環扣及表徵。
研究結果發現，影響高屏溪流域脆弱性的主要因素包含了六項因子－人為發展衝擊、生產危害衝擊、社會經濟條件、醫療服務品質、知識經濟水準、原民防災需求，其分別對於不同地區擁有不同程度之影響；而基於上述因子所形成之潛在衝擊與調適能力，也產生出上游地帶調適能力低、下游地帶潛在衝擊高的明顯空間分佈情形。
上述研究結果所帶來之意義，乃為上游地帶普遍社經結構差距較大、外部倚賴程度較高，下游地帶則因為社經資源條件較佳、相對需承受較高的人類資產潛在衝擊，呈現出兩種不同影響脆弱度之特徵，可視為高屏溪流域在於氣候變遷情境之下所產生出的脆弱程度之典型。

關鍵字

流域；暴露；敏感度；調適力；脆弱度；颱洪災害

並列摘要

According to United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2009 annual report, Asia is one of the biggest hot spots affected by natural disasters and climate in the world. And United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 2007 report has pointed out the impact of extreme rainfall events will lead to hunger and disease, loss of income and livelihood situation surge, thus threatening the survival of human well-being. In Taiwan, an island country in Asia, the distribution of natural environments and socio-economic patterns are more complex and diverse. Therefore, the negative impact of various factors will eventually accumulate into abstract and invisible vulnerability when the flood that we faced may occur suddenly and unexpectedly.
To understand how vulnerability caused by flood affecting condition of local resources, the study selects Kao-Ping River Basin as the subject to look into the exposure, sensitivity, adaptability, vulnerability and other theoretical concepts based on the formation of flood. By Using the principal component analysis (PCA) methods, a number of flood vulnerability index variables were summarized and interpreted as common factors; Combining with GIS spatial overlay analysis, the common factors are compared to understand the vulnerabilities level and to connect and characterize the concepts of how vulnerabilities varied before and after a flood.
The study showed six main common factors affecting the vulnerability of the Kao-Ping River Basin, the impact of human development, the impact of production risk, socio-economic conditions, health service quality, knowledge-based economy standards, and disaster prevention needs of Indigenous Peoples. The six main common factors affect different regions with varying degrees of impact. The study also suggests the obvious spatial distribution, a lower adaptability in the upstream areas and a higher potential impact to be confronted with in the downstream areas, base on the adaptability and potential impact caused by the foregoing factors.
In conclusions, the study result suggests the upstream area generally has a big gap between socio-economic structure, and a higher degree of external dependence. Instead, the downstream area has better-off socio-economic resources, but exposed to relatively high potential impact on human assets. The above cases show that two different characteristics of vulnerability, which could be considered as the typical vulnerability in Kao-Ping River Basin under the climate change scenarios.

並列關鍵字

River Basin； Exposure；Sensitivity；Adaptability；Vulnerability；Typhoon Disaster

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