金融發展對經濟增長的影響：以台灣、中國大陸和泰國為例

The Effect of Financial Development on Economic Growth: The Case of Taiwan, China and Thailand

阮黃芝蘭(Nguyen Hoang Chi Lan)

指導教授 ： 呂麒麟

國立虎尾科技大學/管理學院/經營管理研究所/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6827/NFU.2013.00018

摘要

本次研究评估实证了三个具有明显不同特点的亚洲经济体从1991年至2010年间金融发展与经济增长之间的关系,其中包括:台湾、中国和泰国。本研究?重于银行和股市的指标，用于衡量金融发展与结构，货币政策和国际资本在中国台湾和泰国经济进程中流动的程度。笔者使用1991至2010年的年度数据作为主要分析材料并应用线性回归评估结果。本研究为金融对经济发展的影响提供了支持，以及三个不同经济体的金融发展对经济增长的影响应用理论方面加以补充。此外，作者希望能找到对这些国家的经济增长有重要作用的指标。以?助他们制定正确的方针政策。
本次研究发现:金融发展对这些经济体经济增长有明显的不同的影响。高投资也许不会影响泰国经济，?对台湾和中国的经济做出贡?。政府消费和出口对这些经济体的经济增长产生了积极的作用。融资对台湾和泰国的经济有?明显的积极作用，但由于中国政府严格的金融政策融资对中国的经济?有负面的影响。股票市场规模似乎不能加快经济增长。然而股票回报??击?经济的增长。金融危机，对台湾和中国的经济增长没有造成影响,但?对泰国的经济增长带来?烈的负面影响。资本外流可以为台湾经济带来收益。相反的是，资本流入才会对中国经济增长有所贡?。
研究得出以下结论：第一个，金融发展在经济增长中的作用。本研究也证明了1911年熊彼特的理论-金融发展对经济增长的影响。其次，本研究适用于经济和金融甚至政治体制有??烈不同特点的经济体。笔者发现，金融发展对台湾，中国和泰国的经济增长有?不同的影响。此外，由于中国?大的经济以及台湾金融的可持续发展，金融危机将不会是在台湾和中国大陆的经济发展一个威胁因素。

關鍵字

金融發展 ； 經濟增長 ； 資本流動

並列摘要

Economy and finance seem to be often associated concepts. Many researchers on over the world are attracted by this relationship. This study evaluates the empirical relationship between the financial development and the economic growth for three Asian economies which have significantly different characteristics: Taiwan, China and Thailand from 1991 to 2010. This study focuses on banking and stock market indicators, which measure financial development and structure, monetary and the degree of international capital mobility in the economic process of Taiwan, China and Thailand. The authors use the annual data from 1991 to 2010 as well as the principal component analysis and linear regression to estimate results. This study provides little support to the view that finance has effect on economic. The authors also reduce gaps found in the literature when applying the theory of the impact of financial development on economic growth to three different economies. Besides, the authors hope to contribute to these countries to find which indicators will be important to economic growth. Then they will have right polices to growth their own economies. This study finds that: the effects of financial development on economic growth in these economies are significantly different. High investment had contributed in Taiwan and China while it may not affect to Thailand. The government consumption and the growth rate of real export had a positive role in economic growth in all these economies. The finance-aggregate, which representative by the banking structure indicators, had a significant positive effect on Taiwan and Thailand; but played a negative role in China causing by the tightly financial policy of Chinese government. The market size seemed not accelerate economic growth. However the stock return would impulse the growth of economy. The two period of financial crisis did not affect the economic growth in Taiwan and China, but it negative strongly impacted on Thailand’s economic growth. Capital outflow could bring back the benefit for Taiwan economy. But capital inflow implied the opposite, while the capital inflow had contributed in China economic growth.
This study leads to some interesting implications: the first one relates to the role of financial development in economic growth. This study also proves the theory developed by Schumpeter from 1911 for the effect of financial development on economic growth. Secondly, this study has a contribution when applying to different economies which have strong differently characteristics in both economic and finance or even political system. The authors find that there are significant differently reflects of the impact of financial development on economic growth of Taiwan, China and Thailand. Moreover, as what can be seen in above discussion, the financial crisis will not be a threatening factor to the economic growth in Taiwan and China due to the huge economy of China and the sustainable development of Taiwan’s finance.

並列關鍵字

Financial development ； Economic growth ； Capital mobility

參考文獻

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