廢棄物回收再利用與二氧化碳排放之關聯分析_廢棄物投入產出模型的應用

Waste Input-Output Analysis of CO2 Emission and Waste Recycling in Taiwan

張益壽(Yi-sou Chang)

指導教授 ： 王鯤生

國立中央大學/工學院/環境工程研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2008年)

摘要

全球氣候變遷對環境所造成的衝擊已成為全球性的環保議題，其中二氧化碳是溫室效應最顯著的氣體，台灣亦面臨溫室氣體排放之環境壓力逐年遞增，因此節能減碳與零廢棄的推動成為大家關注焦點之一，而成功的減碳策略在國家的永續發展及循環型社會的推動中，更具有其舉足輕重的角色。
投入產出法在環境議題上的應用，具有環境與經濟相互依存關係之定量分析實用價值，本研究以投入產出分析理論模型架構為基礎，應用結合實物投入產出表之廢棄物投入產出模型，從環境保護和資源永續利用面向，以物質循環代謝排放二氧化碳及廢棄物是擺錯資源的觀點，根據國內廢棄物再利用率及減量率之目標年(短、中、長程)設定值，藉由實證分析模擬在不同廢棄物管理之減量情境假設下，輔以廢棄物投入產出表的編製及模式矩陣方程式的分析，探討廢棄物回收再利用對環境負荷之關聯性效果。
研究結果顯示，廢棄物投入產出模型在環境負荷檢視的功能，除了直接排放量的推估外，於間接(誘發)排放之環境負荷估算，提供了一個定量的簡便預測方法，有助於暸解經濟及環境相互依存性；在情境分析架構中，以台灣地區部門間二氧化碳排放之環境負荷的估算，據以分析廢棄物回收再利用與其之關聯性，若選擇淨廢棄物排放係數矩陣的調整，將廢棄物回收再利用率與減量率(焚化及掩埋) 的外生變數輸入，且在不改變我們的生活消費型態的情況下，與基準年97年對照結果，資源循環確實與環境負荷呈現正相關的削減貢獻率，可有效的減少掩埋場空間消耗量，並具有二氧化碳減量的效應，其環境效率為正值呈現脫鉤現象，是可達到節能減碳，並邁向低廢棄的循環型社會。

關鍵字

廢棄物投入產出模型 ； 廢棄物回收再利用 ； 溫室效應 ； 環境負荷 ； 循環型社會 ； 二氧化碳減量 ； 投入產出分析

並列摘要

The impact caused by global climate change has already become a worldwide environmental issue, among which carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most significant air byproduct of the greenhouse effect. Taiwan also confronts the environmental stress resulting from the emission of greenhouse gas keeps on increasing annually. The promotion of energy saving, and carbon reduction and zero waste have already become one of the issues concerned by social public. Successful carbon reduction strategy plays a very important role in national sustainable development and the fulfillment of recycling-oriented society.
The application of input-output method on environmental issues can produce practical values for Quantitative Analysis of mutually dependent relationship between environment and economy. This research takes input-output analysis theory model as the mainframe basis. The waste input-output model in physical input-output table is both integrated and applied. In terms of environmental protection and sustainable resource use, the material recycling and metabolism and the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and wastes are view points wrongly being emphasized. The prescribed value of the targeted years (of short, mid, and long terms) for reuse ratio and de-weighting ratio of domestic wastes, and the adoption the hypothesis of empirical analysis for the de-weighting of management for different wastes, the edition for input-out table for wastes and the analysis for model matrix equation are integrated for analyzing the
relevant effects of recycling and reusing wastes on environmental load.
The research results indicate that the functions for waste input-output model in the inspection on environment loads can not only make direct evaluation for emission volume, but also provide a simple quantitative prediction method for the evaluation of indirect (induced) emission on environmental loads, so as to help understand mutual dependence between the economy and environment. In the structure of scenario analysis, the estimation for the environment loads caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from entities in Taiwan region is used for analyzing the recycling and reusing and their relevancy. If the adjustment of coefficient matrix of net waste emission is selected, the exogenous factors of recycling, reusing and de-weighting ratios (incineration and landfill) of wastes are input into, amid the situation that our life and consumption patterns are not changed, the positive mutually contribution ratio for waste reduction between resource recycling and environment loads when the base year of 2008 is compared with. It shows that space consumption volume for landfills can be reduced effectively and the effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction can also be created. The positive values of environment efficiency is a decoupling phenomenon and it is thus able to achieve energy saving and carbon reduction and marching to a low-waste of recycling-oriented society.

並列關鍵字

Greenhouse Effect ； Input - Output Analysis ； Waste Input-Output Model ； Waste Recycling ； Environmental Load ； Recycling-oriented Society ； CO2 reduction

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