CEO過度自信對企業財務危機影響之研究

許哲偉(Che-Wei Hsu)

指導教授 ： 王明昌

國立中正大學/管理學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

本研究在檢定CEO的過度自信行為是否會導致之後企業發生財務危機。以台股財務危機公司與對照公司的分析樣本，根據行為財務學之觀點使用公司財務預測、分析師財務預測以及經理人持股等財務指標作為衡量CEO是否具有過度自信的傾向，探討CEO過度自信是否為後續公司財務危機之成因。本文實證結果發現台灣股票市場中，CEO的過度自信與後續公司財務危機呈顯著正向關係，也就是當CEO存在過度自信的心理偏誤時，有可能會導致日後公司發生財務危機。此外，本文也發現CEO過度自信程度與公司財務危機損失程度呈顯著正向關係，表示當CEO過度自信程度越嚴重時，愈有可能造成日後公司財務危機之損失越大。本文研究結果可以提供給台股投資人評估公司CEO特質對投資的影響參考，當CEO產生過度自信行為時，可能會使公司所面臨的財務風險擴大。

關鍵字

非財務指標 ； 財務比率 ； 財務危機 ； 過度自信 ； 財務危機損失程度

並列摘要

This paper attempts to examine whether overconfident behavior of CEO could drive the subsequent corporate financial crisis. Using a 1995-2010 dataset of those sample firms with financial crisis and the related matching firms in Taiwan Stock Exchange and Taiwan OTC Exchange, this study investigates whether CEO overconfidence is one of the reasons for corporate financial crisis, based on corporate financial forecast, analyst financial forecast and manager’s holding share to proxy for the CEO overconfidence in the perspective of behavioral finance. Our findings show that CEO overconfidence is significantly positive with the subsequent corporate financial crisis, implying that psychological bias of CEO overconfidence could result in the presence of subsequent corporate financial crisis. Furthermore, this paper also provides evidences that CEO overconfidence is significantly positive with the losses of corporate financial crisis, representing that higher financial crisis could accompany with higher losses from corporate financial crisis. This study could provide investors a substantial reference for evaluating influence of CEO characteristics on investment, as that corporation could face a higher financial risk under overconfident behaviors of CEO.

並列關鍵字

Non-Financial Indicators ； Financial Rations ； Financial Cirsis ； Overconfidence ； Loss of Corporate Financial Cirsis

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