修正後O’glove盈餘品質與財務危機之探討

公司經營的成敗，影響到投資人及員工的生計，尤其當大公司若是發生財務危機，對於整體經濟環境亦將受到衝擊，故對非專業人士或一般的投資人，若能透過簡單而易懂的工具，就能發現具潛在財務危機之公司，或許能夠避免巨大損失的發生，然各項財務資訊的取得或判讀對許多人而言都存在著許多進入障礙，故本研究運用統計的科學方法，試圖建立財務預警的模型來幫助投資人與債權人進行有效率的判讀。而公司的財務報表不僅代表企業的成績單，更是企業各項經營活動的紀錄表，有利於企業優劣的比較。本研究主要對象係以在臺灣證券交易所公開股票買賣之國內上市、上櫃公司，蒐集正常營運公司及財務危機公司，以資本額相近之同類產業進行1:2配對，資料來源以台灣經濟新報社(TEJ)為主，以此建立三期資料的預測模型，研究期間為2008年至2010年，共75家財務危機公司及正常營運公司。運用邏吉斯迴歸模型（Logistic Regression Model）建構，得出顯著之變數共三個，其中與財務報表相關之變數有二個，和公司治理有關之變數有一個。與財務報表相關之變數僅於發生財務危機最近期模型達顯著，而公司治理變數則於三期模型均達顯著，顯示公司治理較財務資料分析更能達到發現具潛在財務危機公司，值得主管機關和財務報表使用者更深入的研究。

關鍵字

邏吉斯迴歸模型；財務危機；盈餘品質

並列摘要

It is a critical economic impact of employees and investors life for a firm’s operation results, especially when large companies are faced with financial crises, the overall economic environment will be affected; if non-professional or general investors can understand or detect companies’ potential financial crisis through simply and easy tools, then huge losses may be avoided. However, there are many entry barriers for non-professionals to acquire or interpret the financial information. The purpose of this study is trying to establish early-warning models of finance with scientific method and statistics to help investors and creditors to interpret efficiently. Financial statement is not only the companies’ operation results, but the records of business activities. Financial statement also helps investors to compare the business strength and weakness. The study selects 75 listed/OTC normal and financial crisis companies from 2008 to 2010 in Taiwan with a ratio 1:2 matching of similar capital in same industries through Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) to establish three data prediction models. By applying Logistic Regression Model, three variables were obtained including two financial statements associated with and one corporate governance related. The results indicate financial statements associated with variables occurred in most recent model of remarkable and corporate governance variable is significant in three models; the results indicate corporate governance is better to achieve to detect financial crisis than that in financial information analysis. Our finding is to support competent authorities and the users of financial statement to do further study.

並列關鍵字

Logistic regression model ； Financial crisis ； Earning quality

參考文獻

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13. 辜冠舜，(2011)，企業財務危機預警模型之實證分析－以國內上市電子公司為例，國立中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。

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修正後O’glove盈餘品質與財務危機之探討

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