氣候變遷對臺灣水力發電的影響

Effects of Climate Change on Potential Hydropower Generation in Taiwan

簡志耿(Chih-Keng Chien)

指導教授 ： 江介倫

國立屏東科技大學/工學院/水土保持系所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6346/NPUST.2015.00041

摘要

近年來氣候變遷導致全球暖化日益嚴重，而全球氣溫逐漸升高後造成氣候系統出現變異，亦對水文循環造成影響，且出現極端的天氣事件，如乾旱、洪水等，另外豐、枯水期雨量的差異也更加明顯，雨量的變化間接影響流量的增減，而水力發電廠的發電量也因流量受到很大的影響，因此本研究利用AR5氣候變遷情境配合12種GCM大氣環流模式，以TAIWAP程式模擬未來降雨量變化，並配合各發電廠流域目前之逕流係 數得到流量，接著將流量代入潛能發電量公式，以分析氣候變遷改變下未來水庫水力發電量的變化。
研究結果發現全氣候變遷衝擊下臺灣發電量在短期有66%的機率潛勢水力發電量是增加的潛勢水力發電量最多增加了1505.02百萬度反之潛勢水力發電量最多減少627.68百萬度；中期則有75%潛勢水力發電量增加，潛勢水力發電量最多增加2375.907百萬度，最多減少525.203百萬度；長期更高達83%機率發電量是增加的趨勢，在長期潛勢水力發電量最多則增加3270.84百萬度，而潛勢水力發電量最多減少405.3百萬度。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 水力發電 ； 降雨量 ； 流量 ； 發電量

並列摘要

In recent years, climate change leads to global warming worsening, While the global temperature gradually increased variability caused by climate system also affect the hydrological cycle and extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, etc. Another difference between wet season, dry season rainfall is also more obvious, Rainfall changes indirect effects of increased or decreased in runoff, The generating capacity of hydroelectric power plants but also because of runoff be greatly affected, Therefore, this study using AR5 climate change scenarios with 12 kinds of GCM.
Using TAIWAP program to simulate rainfall changes in the future, and with the current watershed runoff coefficients plants get flows, Then with the potential of generating capacity flows equation. To analyze climate change, changing the amount of future changes in hydroelectric reservoirs.
Study found that the impact of the whole climate change. Taiwan's generating capacity in the short term 66% chance of potential hydropower capacity will be increased. Hydropower potential maximum increase of 1505.02 million degrees on the contrary hydroelectric potential to reduce the amount of maximum 627.68 million degrees; In the medium term, there are 75% increase potential hydropower capacity, Hydropower potential increase maximum 2375.907 million degrees, maximum reduction of 525.203 million degrees; Long-term power generation is an increasing trend as much as 83 percent. In the long-term potential hydropower capacity increased maximum 3270.84 million degrees, while maximum hydropower potential reduction 405.3 million degrees.

並列關鍵字

Climate change ； hydropower ； rainfall ； flow ； generation

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