本研究旨在探討土地增值稅、房地產價格及經濟成長之關聯性,以臺灣地區民國85年至102年間全國土地增值稅稅收、房地產價格指數及實質國內生產毛額資料進行實證研究,並以Eviews8.0統計軟體進行分析,經由單根檢定、共整合檢定、向量誤差修正模型、Granger因果關係檢定及預測誤差變異數分解,結果歸納如下: 一、 共整合檢定顯示,土地增值稅、房地產價格及經濟成長之間具有長期穩定均衡關係。 二、 向量誤差修正模型實證顯示,土地增值稅、房地產價格及經濟成長在均衡誤差不為零的狀況下,均有消弭誤差的調整能力。 三、 Granger因果關係檢定得知,土地增值稅與經濟成長兩者間具有雙向之因果關係;房地產價格與經濟成長兩者間亦具有雙向之因果關係;而房地產價格與土地增值稅未有明顯之因果關係。 四、 預測誤差變異數分解顯示,土地增值稅、房地產價格及經濟成長對其自身的解釋能力皆相當高,而經濟成長對土地增值稅及房地產價格的解釋能力次之。 綜上分析,經濟成長使得房地產價格上漲,土地增值稅稅收增加;而土地增值稅的課徵,並無法平緩房地產價格,成為政府穩定房地產價格的政策工具。
This research main explores the relationship among land value increment tax, real estate price and economic growth. From 1996 to 2013, we based on national land value increment tax revenues, real estate prices and real gross domestic product in Taiwan. By using Eviews8.0 statistics software to analyze the data, and employing ADF unit root test, Johansen co-integration test, vector error correction model, Granger causality test, forecast error variance composition, we indicate following findings: First, co-integration test shows there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among land value increment tax, real estate price and economic growth. Second, the error correction model shows that in the long-run equilibrium adjustment process, land value increment tax, real estate price and economic growth are capable of adjusting the equilibrium error, in the equilibrium error no zero situation. Three, the Granger causality test shows land value increment tax and economic growth have a complementary relationship between each other. We also find real estate price and economic growth have a complementary relationship. However, there are no significant the causality between real estate price and land value increment tax. Land value increment tax will not influence and settle real estate price. Last, the forecast error variance decomposition shows land value increment tax, real estate price, and economic growth can explain itself highly. Economic growth can explain to land value increment tax and real estate price on second place.