摘 要 近來,接連受到國際油價、國際穀物行情上揚和大宗物資上漲的影響,台灣的油價、物價受到連動效應,也跟著不停地上漲。在面對物價波動的時期,如何掌握房價變動對客房住用率的影響,對觀光旅館業之營運績效影響甚鉅。 本研究旨在探討國際觀光旅館國人住宿需求價格不對稱,採用1999年至2007年交通部觀光局公佈之國際觀光旅館統計月報資料,選用近似理想需求體系(Almost Ideal Demand System, AIDS)為實證模型,以似乎無關聯迴歸法(Seeming Unrelated Regression, SUR)估計參數,建立台灣五大地區之住宿需求模型,於需求體系中加入季節變動和SARS期間之虛擬變數,並加上加總性、齊次性與對稱性之限制式,聯立估計體系內之參數,分析台灣各地區國際觀光旅館國人住宿需求之特性,並將上述之結果與未加入季節變動和SARS期間虛擬變數之需求體系,透過殘差均方根(Root Mean Square Residual, RMSR)進行模型模擬能力之比較。研究結果顯示,在自身價格彈性方面,除了北部地區為正值之外,其餘四個地區均為負值,符合經濟理論,其中,北部、南部與東部地區之國際觀光旅館具價格彈性不對稱情形;在交叉價格彈性部分,北部地區與中部、南部、其它地區,以及其它地區與中部地區、其它地區與南部地區具有替代關係;支出彈性部份,北部與東部地區為總住宿支出之正常財,中部、南部與其它地區為總住宿支出之劣等財。加入虛擬變數之需求體系對資料的配適度為佳,即國人住宿國際觀光旅館需求體系顯著存在季節差異和不對稱情形。
Abstract Recently, effecting by the appreciation of international oil prices, international grain prices, and bulk goods, the price of Taiwan’s oil and goods are also rising up constantly. In the period of facing price fluctuations, controlling the effect of price changes to the rate of room occupancy has very huge impact on operating performance to the tourist hotel industry. This research focused on the elasticity asymmetry effect of accommodation demand of international tourist hotels, used from 1999 to 2007 of the Taiwanese international hotels Monthly data, to choose an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) for the base models, and employs Seeming Unrelated Regression (SUR) to obtain the estimation parameters, it is divide into five major areas and establishes the model for the accommodation demand system of Taiwanese tourists to international hotels. Within the demand system, add seasonal, SARS variation regulatory items, and restrictive formula for adding-up, homogeneity, and symmetry condition to analyze accommodation demand system of Taiwanese tourists to international hotels. From the results obtained above and the out of season and SARS variation demand system, pass through Root Mean Square Residual (RMSR) and carry out a comparison of model simulation capabilities. The end result shows that in the own-price elasticity of North areas is positive which is unexpected, and the four of the remains are less than one, in line with economic theory. North, Southern and Eastern areas with elasticity asymmetric of accommodation demand of international tourist hotels. Cross elasticity aspect, North and Middle, Southern and other areas are substitution effect. The other and Middle, Southern areas are substitution effect, too. North and Eastern areas are the normal goods of accommodation expenditure, and Middle, Southern, other areas are inferior goods. Than the added seasonal changes and asymmetry effects demand system fit data better than traditional demand system. In other words, the demand system of Taiwan nationals who come to stay at international hotels is significantly affected by seasonal changes and asymmetry effect.
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