影響上市公司財務危機預警模式建構因子之研究

A Study on the Factors Affecting Predictive Crisis Financial Model for Listed Company

黃鈴羢(LING-JUNG HUANG)

指導教授 ： 邱英祧

亞洲大學/管理學院/經營管理學系碩士班/碩士(2005年)

摘要

學者Berver(1966年)雖曾以單變量分析法，對三十項財務比率進行比較分析，然而單變量僅能探討單一變數，本研究欲以多變量logistic迴歸分析法，首先針對單一變數加以探討，再分別建立獲利能指標、現金流理指標、成長率指標、償債能力指標、經營能力指標五大財指標之多元財務模預警模型。研究發現：區別危機公司的預測準確度上前三名為(1)借款依存度，(2)淨值/總資產，(3)營業活動現金流量/總資產，其區別值分別為82.30、0.89、0.60，當某一家公司的借款依存度、淨值/總資產，營業活動現金流量/總資產的值少於82.30、0.89、0.60，時，為危機公司的機率較大，反之，即可能為正常公司，準確度分別為78.57%、75.56%、72.06%。五大指標中，預測能力以償債能力最具有預測能力，次為現金流量指標。

關鍵字

五大財務指標 ； logistic 迴歸模型 ； 財務預警模型

並列摘要

The scholar, Beaver, once used the single variable method for analyzing 30 financial rates and compared the arrangement. However, the single variable method confers only one factor. Therefore, the research will use the logistic regression model to analyze the single financial factor first; afterwards setting up the gains, cash-flow, growing-up, debt-paying, and managing index metric financial models. Discovered: The predictive index on the accuracy of the three top distinguishing factors of the crisis company are: 1) the borrowed money depends on degree, 2) net value / total assets, 3) the cash flow of the operating activity / total assets. At some companies, the borrowed money from a certain source depends on degree, net value / total assets, operating activity cash flow / total for asset values less than 82.30. 0.89 - 0.60 are actually more relative probabilities for the crisis company. On the contrary, it may namely be a normal company and the three factors' accuracy will be 78.57% - 75.56% - 72.06%. Of the predictive abilities of the five financial indexes, the first is debt-paying ability. The second is cash-flow index.

並列關鍵字

Five financial indexes ； Logistic regression model ； Predictive financial mode

參考文獻

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