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都市計畫、交通建設與產業引進關聯性之研究-以國道5號與“大洋都市計畫”對頭城地區影響為例

A Study of Capital-Plan, Transportation and Industry Related Factors-The Case of the National N.5 Highway and the Big Ocean Capital Plan Area

摘要


宜蘭縣地處台灣東北部,往年因交通不便、就業機會稀少等因素,導致發生縣內人口外移及人口呈遞減現象,惟近年來受國道五號高速公路通車及大洋都市計畫推動等影響,其人口數是否因為交通便利而引進產業並讓人口成長,則為本文探討之課題。限於前述資料取得不易,研究所使用之方法採次級資料分析法以及人口預測方法,以預測宜蘭地區之人口成長趨勢。從資料分析及討論中,本文之結論包括以下三大重點:(一)國道5號通車後宜蘭縣實際人口數較自然人口成長趨勢推估者為高,顯示近年來宜蘭縣人口負成長現象有減緩甚至反轉之趨勢;(二)北二高沿線地區之發展條件與蘭陽平原相似,在北二高興建完成後,持續吸引人口聚集,而交流道附近10 km以內之人口密度更為全部村里之1.7倍,顯見交通建設確實有利於地區產業發展;(三)從資料分析中可明顯看出,人口預測方法中以二次拋物線最小二乘法為最適合之預測方法,惟純數理之統計方法,因無法考量到交通建設、產業進駐、觀光遊客增加等因素,故推估之人口並無法能有效看出一個地區未來人口發展及成長,實屬不合理,據此本文參酌相關文獻與統計資料,建議修正大洋地區都市計畫之目標人口數為38000人。

並列摘要


In the past years, because of the inconvenient traffic and lack of work opportunities, the population in Yilan, which located in the eastern area, was immigrating and decreasing. In recent years, the National N.5 Highway was opened and the Big Ocean Capital Plan was proceeded. It influenced whether the population increased by the convenient of transportation and brought the industry into Yilan or not. It was the issue we wanted to discuss in this paper. Due to the information is not easy to get, the study used secondary analysis and frequently predict of population methods, such as arithmetical method and geometrical, to predict the growth tendency of population in Yilan. From the information analysis and the discussion, the conclusions included the following statements: (1) The increase of population in Yilan showed that after National Expressway No.5 opened, the actual growth of population was higher than the prediction of natural growth in Yilan County. The data showed that the negative growth of population in Yilan had been slowed down even much better. (2) The development condition of the area along the Second Northern Highway was similar to Lanyang Plain, especially after the Second Northern Highway completed. It continued to attract the population get together. Around the interchange about 10 km, the population densities were 1.7th times compared to the whole village. It was obvious to see traffic construction influenced the region development indeed.(3) According to the data analysis, the Parabolic Least Squares Method was the most fitting method for this study. Because the Mathematical Statistics Method couldn't take the construction of transportation, launch of industry, increasing of tourist into consideration, it would not be effect to predict the development and growth of population. According to the references and statistic data in this study, the ideal population in the Big Ocean Capital Plan should be 38,000 people.

參考文獻


Anthony Giddens(1995)。批判的社會學導論。唐山出版社。
David W. Stewart(2000)。次級資料研究法。弘智出版社。
G. Myrdal(1957).Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions.London:Duckworth.
Hoover, E. M.(1948).The Location of Economic Activity.New York:McGraw-Hill Book Company.
Hoyt(1939).(Principle of Urban Real Estate).

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