China’s OBOR Policy, China-U.S. Relations, and the Return of Geopolitics

中國的一帶一路政策、中美關係和地緣政治回歸

Yale H. Ferguson

《中國大陸研究》 60卷2期 (2017/06) Pp. 55-85

https://doi.org/10.30389/MCS.201706_60(2).0003

摘要

China’s ＂One Belt, One Road＂ plan（or strategy）that was unveiled in late 2013 is a bold new foreign investment program by the country that, one measure suggests, already has the world’s largest economy. OBOR is aimed at addressing continuing domestic problems, exploring new investment opportunities abroad, and advancing China’s position as a global power in a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment. This article advises readers to eschew any geopolitical IR theory or methodological assumptions, and it simply attempts to trace OBOR’s antecedents, explain what the policy is （and is not）, analyze its strengths and limitations, and carefully consider its likely future. The article begins with a careful review of the complex Chinese domestic and international backgrounds out of which OBOR emerged and proceeds to examine the plan as articulated by Chinese policy-makers, its sources of finance and related institutions such as the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and projects in various regions that have been approved to date. A further section focuses upon potential challenges that threaten the success of the OBOR initiative, from weaknesses in China’s own economy, political system, and society, to a host of problems likely to be encountered in host countries. In conclusion, our analysis acknowledges the potential for a ＂return of geopolitics＂, dividing the world into competing power blocs and spheres of influence, but advances the proposition that China’s OBOR should not be seen primarily as a threat. Win-win solutions are yet possible as investment in infrastructure and other projects encourages growth and may lead to more opportunities for all.

關鍵字

OBOR ； China ； U.S. ； Geopolitics

並列摘要

中國2013年下旬所提出的「一帶一路」計劃（或戰略），是已堪稱全球 最大經濟體的中國所提出一套大膽的新對外投資計畫。「一帶一路」旨在解決國內持續存在的問題，探索海外新興投資機會，推動中國在快速變化的地緣政治環境中成為全球力量。本文建議讀者避開任何地緣政治國際關係理論或方法假設。本文將試圖追蹤「一帶一路」的來路，解釋此政策是什麼或不是什麼，分析其優勢和局限性，並考慮其可能的未來。文章首先從「一帶一路」的出現和進展，仔細審查複雜的中國內外背景，以中國決策者、財政來源以及相關機構如新興亞洲基礎設施投資銀行，和到目前為止已批准的各個地區的項目來檢視該計畫。進一步將焦點集中於說明潛在挑戰，從中國自身 經濟，政治制度和社會的弱點到東道國可能遇到的許多問題，這些挑戰威脅著「一帶一路」倡議的成功。文章的結論是，中國的「一帶一路」具有「回歸地緣政治」的可能，即將世界分為相互競爭的集團和勢力範圍的潛力，但這並不表示「一帶一路」應被視為具威脅性的主張。雙贏的結果仍是可能的，因為對基礎設施和其他項目的投資鼓勵增長，可能為所有人帶來更多的機會。

並列關鍵字

一帶一路 ； 中國 ； 美國 ； 地緣政治

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