誰是政黨認同者與獨立選民？－以二○○一年台灣地區選民政黨認同的決定因素為例

Who Are Partisans and Independents?-Determinants of Party Identifications of Taiwan's Voters in 2001

吳重禮(Chung-Li Wu) ； 許文賓(Wen-Pin Hsu)

《政治科學論叢》 18期 (2003/06) Pp. 101-140

https://doi.org/10.6166/TJPS.18(101-140)

摘要

在各類政治態度中，政黨認同係一項甚為重要的心理成分，其不僅是左右選民投票抉擇的關鍵因素，而且對於政黨體系的穩定與否影響甚鉅。鑑此，本文回顧相關研究文獻，扼要簡述政黨認同的四項爭議，其分別是：其一，政黨認同的概念意涵；其二，政黨認同的測量；其三，政黨認同與政治行為之間的關係；其四，政黨認同者與獨立選民之基本特質的差異。本文嘗試以台灣地區政黨認同者與獨立選民的差異為研究核心，鋪陳理論架構，並藉由「2001年台灣選舉與民主化調查研究：民國九十年立法委員選舉全國大型民意調查研究」資料，針對受訪者個人社會特徵與相關政治態度，進行「雙變數交叉分析」，並設立「多項勝算對數模型」(multinomial logit model)。實證資料顯示，在年齡、教育程度、省籍、地理區域、政治興趣、政黨理念、族群認同、統獨立場、總統施政滿意評價，以及對於台灣未來前途評估等方面，政黨認同者與獨立選民均具有顯著差異。在結論中，筆者摘述本文要點與其研究限制。無疑地，政黨認同相關領域的研究仍有寬廣的發展空間，均是值得學界持續關注的議題。

關鍵字

政黨認同 ； 獨立選民 ； 政治態度 ； 投票行為

並列摘要

With respect to a variety of political attitudes, it is generally accepted that ”party identification” is an important psychological component associated with a wide range of political behaviors. Preceding literature has also empirically shown that the distribution and intensity of party identifications are profoundly related to the stability, integration, and development of political systems. In this study, we review some research, summarizing four major controversies over party identification: 1) the meaning of the concept ”party identification;” 2) the measurement of party identification the; 3) the relationship between party identification and political behaviors; and, 4) differences between partisans and independent voters. This study concentrates on the fourth as the research topic, and we take advantage of the 2001 Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS 2001) survey data and examine the associations between party identification and individual-level variables, consisting of objective socio-demographic and subjective cognitive variables. The methodology adopted in this study involves two steps. The first approach is the use of cross-tabulation analyses, and the second method employs the multinomial logit model in order to evaluate the simultaneous effect of independent variables on the dependent variable. As hypothesized, the findings reveal that the socio-demographic variables of age, education level, ethnicity, and region exert an important influence on one's identification with the major political parties. The results also indicate that the cognitive variables of political interest, party ideal, ethnic identification, China-reunification or Taiwan-independence position, evaluation of presidential performance, and prospective assessment of Taiwan's future have significant differences between partisans and independents. In the conclusion, we review the major findings and limitations of this study and note that party identification is a field worthy of continued research by comparative political scientists.

並列關鍵字

party identification ； independent voter ； political attitude ； voting behavior

參考文獻

黃紀、吳重禮(2000)。台灣地區縣市層級「分立政府」影響之初探。台灣政治學刊。4，105-147。

傅明穎(1998)。北市選民的候選人評價與投票決定。台灣政治學刊。3，195-243。

吳重禮、王宏忠(2003)。我國選民「分立政府」心理認知與投票穩定度:以2000年總統選舉與2001年立法委員選舉為例。選舉研究。10(1)，1-36。

盛杏湲(2002)。統獨議題與台灣選民的投票行為:一九九○年代的分析。選舉研究。9(1)，41-80。

張卿卿(2002)。競選媒體使用對選民競選議題知識與政治效能感的影響-以兩千年總統大選為例。選舉研究。9(1)，1-39。