從國際比較探討台灣每千人口需要多少醫師？

How Many Physicians per 1000 People Do We Need in Taiwan an International Comparison

吳肖琪(Shiao-Chi Wu) ； 朱慧凡(Hui-Fan Chu) ； 黃麟珠(Lee-Gyu Haung) ； 雷秀麗(Hsiu-Li Lei)

《台灣公共衛生雜誌》 22卷4期 (2003/08) Pp. 279-286

https://doi.org/10.6288/TJPH2003-22-04-04

摘要

目標：比較台灣與其他國家醫師人口比之差異及探討世界各國醫師人口比之相關因素，提供台灣訂定醫師人口比目標參考。方法：採行政院衛生署統計室資料、主計處及世界銀行等網站的250個國家或地區之統計資料，進行分析。結果：依據世界銀行之分類我國屬於高所得國家，但每千人口醫師數僅接近中高所得之國家，2000年每千人口西醫師數為1.33人，若含中醫師為1.50人。由世界各國資料分析所得迴歸模式，顯示國內生產毛額、女性識字率、女性60歲以上人口百分比及女性平均餘命會影響各國對醫師人口比需求，整體解釋力81.5%。推估未來醫師人力供需時，若考慮女性60歲以上人口百分比增加的需求，則2010年醫師供給即有不足，必須加入中醫師才約可平衡，至於2020年，則將會不足。結論：建議政府醫師人力政策規劃應考慮國內人口高齡化的影響，並加強醫師在長期照護、老人專科方面的知識與能力。

關鍵字

醫師 ； 醫師人力 ； 人口老化 ； 醫療照護

並列摘要

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to explore the number of physicians per 1000 people among Taiwan and other countries through international comparison. Which factors were related to the number of physicians per 1000 people? Should we adjust the number of physicians per 1000 people while facing a rapid increase in the aged population in the coming 20-30 years in Taiwan? Methods: The database was collected from the statistics report of the Department of Health, Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics Executive Yuan and the World Bank Report on 250 countries or areas. Results: According to the World Bank's classification, Taiwan is a high GNP country. The number of physicians per 1000 people in Taiwan in 2000 was 1.33. If the physicians of Chinese Medicine are included the figure is 1.50.This is only getting close to middle-high GNP countries. Stepwise regression analyses give an R2 value of up to 81.5% for the number of physicians per 1000 people, which was influenced by GDP, female literacy, the percentage of female population aged over 60 years and female life expectancy. The percentage of female population aged over 60 years was an important factor influencing the ratio of physicians to the population in the future. According to this demand factor, the supply of physicians in Taiwan in 2010 will be lower, unless the physicians of Chinese Medicine are included, and it definitely will be lower in 2020. Conclusions: We suggest the government should consider the effect of the aging population when they draw up the policies for the physicians' workforce. Also, they should plan the composition of specialists and enhance the ability and knowledge of physicians for long term care and particularly care of the elderly.

並列關鍵字

physician ； physician workforce ； aging ； medical care

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