運動彩券投注者之認知分析：以美國職棒大聯盟賽事為例

緒論：運動彩券玩法簡單、多元又具備公益性質，在台灣相當受歡迎。同時也是運動產業發展的重要經費來源之一。投注者經常認為投注結果的輸贏並非運氣而是受到技術與知識的影響。然而運動彩券究竟屬於技巧性的賭博或機率性的賭博，可能與投注者的想像不同。本研究因此藉由了解投注者決策時所依賴的因素與謬誤，對此想法進行探討。方法：本研究在兩個月的期間內，記錄15位運動彩券專家預測美國職棒大聯盟比賽勝負的理由及正確率。並從預測勝負的理由中找出先發投手防禦率、近十場平均得分、後援投手防禦率、連勝場次等四項因素，做為設計社會判斷理論問卷的依據，以探討投注者預測勝負的判斷對策。結果：社會判斷理論問卷的研究成果顯示，受測者整體對連勝場次最為重視，且絕大多數為越高越好的正相關。其次為先發投手防禦率，亦以正相關為多數。其他兩個因素則不受重視。因此受測者深受好手氣的謬誤而非賭徒的謬誤所影響，且不因年齡、性別，以及投注經驗而有差異。又由觀察記錄中得知，15位運動彩券專家在調查期間預測的平均正確率為54.9%，因此尚無法認定運動彩券投注的輸贏是受技術與知識影響，而非隨機的結果。結論：運動彩券業者能夠獲利，除了莊家優勢外，還有投注者可以預測勝負的自信。認為自己可以預測比賽勝負的因果歷程提高了投注的動機，對設局者而言就是獲利的來源。

關鍵字

運動彩券；因果關係；好手氣的謬誤；賭徒的謬誤；社會判斷理論

並列摘要

Introduction: Sports lottery is popular in Taiwan because it is simple, pluralistic and beneficial for the public welfare. Furthermore, sports lottery is an important financial resource for sports industry development. The gamblers of sports lottery usually think the outcome of betting is largely determined by gamblers' techniques and knowledge but not probability. However, sports lottery is the game of skill or the game of chance may be different from the image of gamblers. The study probes this notion by realizing the factors and fallacies that gamblers depend on and are involved. Methods: This study observes and records 15 sports lottery experts' reasoning for outcome prediction (winning or loss) and their accuracy rate about MLB matches in two months. According to their reasoning, the study found four key factors used by experts on betting. This study uses these four factors as the base for formulating a SJT (social judgment theory) questionnaire to investigate punters' judgment policy. Results: The results suggest that the length of the winning streaks is the most emphasized factor by the subjects, and the subjects believe that is the longer the better (a positive correlation). The second is the ERA of the starters, which also displays a positive correlation. The remaining two are less valued. As a result, subjects are affected by hot hand rather than the gambler's fallacy. Furthermore, the age, gender and experience of bet do not have a significant impact on subjects' judgment policy. It can be found from the record that the average accuracy rate of the 15 sports lottery experts is 54.9% only in investigation period. In other words, for sports lottery, winning or not may be only a matter of chance rather than techniques and knowledge. Conclusion: The reasons that the sports lottery companies have made profits for a long while, in addition to house advantage, is the gambler's confidence for predicting the match outcomes accurately. To predict the causality process of a coming game arouses the incentive to participate a bet. That ensures the house get profits.

並列關鍵字

sports lottery ； causality ； gambler's fallacy ； hot hand fallacy ； social judgment theory

參考文獻

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運動彩券投注者之認知分析：以美國職棒大聯盟賽事為例

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