循環強化羊群行為之實證研究

An Empirical Study of Herding Behavior of Revolving Augmentation

練有為(Yu-Wei Lan)

《創新研發學刊》 13卷2期 (2017/12) Pp. 1-17

摘要

家族企業對產業的影響利弊互見，因此如何認清企業集團的經營模式，增強在金融市場增進操作績效，將是投資人的一大挑戰。本研究為解析集團廠商循環強化羊群行為，採用金融海嘯以來台塑家族企業之股價資料，配合台灣50ETF和台灣中型100ETF股價資料，經由EGARCH模型和MultiCharts程式交易進行實驗，本研究測試的技術分析可以導致交易利潤，投資者可以根據家族企業的領頭羊增加交易利潤，而且投資人有追隨較大交易之集團羊群行為，確認企業集團股價之操作存在循環強化羊群行為。

關鍵字

家族企業 ； 指數型廣義自我迴歸條件變異數模型 ； 羊群效應 ； Granger因果檢定 ； 程式交易

並列摘要

The argument about the impact of family business group on the industry is quite different, so how to understand the business model of enterprises and enhance the operational performance in the financial market will be a major challenge to investors. Using the data of Formosa Plastics Group, with Taiwan 50ETF and Taiwan medium 100ETF price information, this article adopts generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (EGARCH) and MultiCharts program transactions to investigate the volatility of the stock price in Formosa Plastics Group. The results show that the technical analysis tested in this study can lead to trading profits and investors can increase their trading profits based on follow-the-leader in family owned company. We can confirm that the herd behavior of revolving augmentation does exist in investors' trading.

並列關鍵字

Family Business ； EGARCH ； Herd Effect ； Granger Casualty Test ； Symmetric Trading