非號誌化路口接受間距模擬模式之建立

當駕駛者駕車行駛於非號誌化路口時，由於沒有交通號誌管制，因此接受間距是影響能否安全穿越路口的重要參數。同時也會影響車輛穿越路口的效率，造成車輛延滯、停等現象。本研究分析車輛通過非號誌化路口時，接受間距之行為特性，除了透過調查分析非號誌化路口車輛接受間距的特性外，並利用蒙地卡羅模擬建立非號誌化路口接受間距之模擬模式。研究過程中利用所蒐集之車輛間距，比較接受與拒絕之間距，得到臨界間距值；再透過迴歸模式分析，針對接受間距進行校估，建立接受間距與拒絕間距之累積機率複迴歸式；最後應用蒙地卡羅模擬，建立非號誌化路口接受間距之模擬模式，並觀測車輛之停等情形，得到平均停等延滯之結果。

關鍵字

非號誌化路口；接受間距；迴歸模式；蒙地卡羅模擬；延滯

並列摘要

Accepted gap is an important parameter for vehicle drivers at unsignalized intersections since no traffic control signals at these intersections. It also causes traffic flow interruption and conflict problems. Vehicle delay and stops affects the operational efficiency of vehicles crossing the intersections. Illegal driving behaviors result in high probability of traffic accidents at unsignalized intersections. Therefore, driving behavior analysis of vehicle drivers at unsignalized intersections is the base of improved strategies development. This study analyzes the gap acceptance characteristics of vehicles crossing unsignalized intersections and develops a gap acceptance simulation model based on the Monte Carlo simulation method. Critical gaps are analyzed based on the surveyed and analyzed data of accepted gaps and rejected gaps at an unsignalized intersection. The regression models of cumulative probabilities for accepted and rejected gaps are developed. Finally, the study develops an application example of the simulation model to analyzed the average stopped delay of vehicles at unsignalized intersections.