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Sufficient Number of Observations for Sales Forecasts with Limited Information: A Case of an Innovative Agro-Industrial Product

並列摘要


This research aims to find out how many the sufficient number of observations for the sales forecasts of an innovative agro-industrial product, feta cheese from buffalo milk, is. The problem is placed by [4] for the challenge of sales forecasts with limited information. This study applies the logistic function introduced by [5] with several methods of estimations; least squares with quadratic interpolation, least squares with quasi-Newton, maximum likelihood with quadratic interpolation and maximum likelihood with quasi-Newton. These methods can use only 3 observations of the sales for the estimation. For the result, the sufficient number of observations is between 7 to 24 observations of monthly data.

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