Rural Electrification Peak Load Demand Forecast Model Based on End User Demographic Data

Anthony Mfonobong Umoren ； Nseobong. I. Okpura ； Idorenyin Markson

《Mathematical and Software Engineering》 3卷1期 (2017/03) Pp. 87-98

摘要

In this paper a rural electrification peak load demand forecast model was developed based on the readily available United Nation and World Bank data on the electric power consumption in KWh per capita, along with the population and land mass data of the rural community. Furthermore, in the situation where there is no available data on the land mass area, a web map applications can be used for computing the land mass area in Km^2 for the project coverage area. In this paper, the rural community used as the case study was Orji town in Owerri North local government area in Imo state, Nigeria. The forecast results showed that the part of Orji community that was considered in the study had landmass area of 2.4760387Km^2; a population of 2898 in 2015 and peak load demand of 81.14 KVA in the same year with 45% population having access to electricity. However, in 2025, the same part of Orji town will have a population of 3971.791 and peak load demand of 261.79 KVA with 75% population having access to electricity.

關鍵字

Rural Electrification ； Load factor ； Load demand ； Peak load Demand ； Demography ； Electric Demand Forecast ； Electric Demand Per Capita