臺灣鑄幣稅與通貨膨脹之研究

A Study on the Seigniorage Tax and Inflation in Taiwan

莫積懿(Ji-Yi Mo)

指導教授 ： 謝德宗

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2012.10032

摘要

台灣政府債務未償餘額累積最近幾年已經逼近法定額度上限。另一方面，中央銀行每年皆扮演支援國庫的大戶角色。事實上，央行實際獲利是遠高於繳庫金額。政府預算赤字可以利用央行盈餘彌補，央行盈餘卻是源自鑄幣稅的徵收，惟央行透過盈餘繳庫融通政府支出，將可能引爆通貨膨脹。是以央行若想極大化鑄幣稅，應該將通貨膨脹率控制在某個範圍，以避免惡性通貨膨脹。
　　本文以預付現金模型建立實質貨幣需求函數，進而推演出長期下，臺灣所得上升1%，貨幣需求將增加2.239789%。其次，貨幣需求的通貨膨脹率半彈性係數則為-7.495275，通貨膨脹率越高社會對貨幣需求就越低。
　　本文相關資料取自行政院主計處中華民國統計資訊網總體統計資料庫、內政部統計資料庫及中央銀行統計資料庫，期間自1961至2010年。本文採用ADF檢定證實序列具穩定性，共整合檢定亦確定貨幣成長率、通貨膨脹率與經濟成長率具有長期穩定的關係。
　　本文就臺灣鑄幣稅與財政赤字占GDP比例之比較，顯示二者之間有某種程度的反向趨勢，似可看出央行盈餘繳庫彌補赤字的效果。此外，我國政府為取得最大鑄幣稅，則貨幣成長率應介於16.6531%-27.0317%之間，最高通貨膨脹率應維持在15.7122%(2009年)以下。財政部未來在籌措財源時，鑄幣稅似乎也是能在不產生惡性通貨膨脹前提下，可以採取的手段之一。

關鍵字

鑄幣稅 ； 通貨膨脹稅 ； 預付現金模型 ； ADF檢定 ； 共整合檢定

並列摘要

The outstanding deficit account of the Taiwanese governmental debts has accumulated and approached to its legal limit in the recent years. On the other hand, the Central Bank plays a role as a major contributor to the governmental treasury each year. In fact, the revenue of the Central Bank is far higher than its submitted amount. The governmental deficit can be compensated by the revenue of the Central Bank, which is imposed by seigniorage. But defraying the governmental expenditure by the revenue of the Central Bank may ignite inflation. If the Central Bank plans to maximize its seigniorage, the inflation rate should be controlled within a range so as to avoid a hyper- inflation.
In this thesis a real money demand function is built with the cash-in-advance model. With this function a long-term relation can be derived that in Taiwan a 1% GDP rise leads to a 2.239789% rise of money demand. Furthermore, the semi-elastic coefficient of inflation rate to money demand is -7.495275, that is in a society with a higher inflation rate the demand for money is lesser.
This research uses data acquired from the websites of the ROC macro statistic data bases of the national statistic bureau, the Ministry of the Interior, and the Central Bank, covering a period from 1961 to 2010. The series stability is proved by the ADF test. The long term stable relation of money growth rate, inflation rate and economic growth rate is also confirmed by the cointegration test.
From the comparison of the Taiwan seiginorage to the deficit to GDP ratio, it shows a certain level of reversed relation and reveals the compensation effect of the revenue of the Central Bank toward deficit.
Furthermore for achieving the maximum effect of seigniorage, the money growth rate should be in the range from 16.6531% to 27.0317%, and the maximum inflation rate should be kept below 15.7122% (2009).
If the hyperinflation can be controlled, it seems that the seigniorage is a measure for the Ministry of Finance to raise its financial resources.

並列關鍵字

seigniorage ； inflation tax ； cash-in-advance model ； ADF test ； cointegration test

參考文獻

5.吳中書 (2009)，「論臺灣貨幣需求函數」，《經濟論文》371(2)， 23-52

19.Cukrowski, Jacek and Janecki, Jaroslaw, 2001,“Measuring Fiscal Seigniorage in Poland:1990-1998,”Central European Journal of Operations Research, 9(3), p.227.

1.Anand, R., and van Wijnbergen, S., 1989,“Inflation and 　the Financing of Government Expenditure: An econometric analysis of the determinants of inflation in Turkey,”World Bank Economic Review. 3(1),pp.17-38.

2.Andrabi, Tahir, 1997,“Seigniorage, Taxation, and Weak Government,”Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, 29(1), pp.106-26.

4.Ashworth, John and Evans, Lynne, 1998,“Seigniorage and Tax Smoothing in Developing Countries,”Journal of Economic Studies, 25(6), pp.486-495.