中國大陸人口結構與儲蓄率之研究：1980-2015

The Demographic Structure and the Saving Rate in Mainland China: 1980-2015

蔡婉青(Wan-Qing Cai)

指導教授 ： 李顯峰

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201701286

摘要

中國大陸自改革開放以來，經濟成長表現突飛猛進，高經濟成長率與儲蓄率持續下降的現象引起中外學者的高度關注。本文先對影響儲蓄率的因素進行理論分析，其主要的影響因素包括宏觀經濟、人口結構、政策效果，并结合風險規避，再選取1980-2015年中國大陸年儲蓄率以及相關宏觀經濟情況和人口結構相關統計數據對中國大陸儲蓄率的長期和短期影响因素進行實證分析。先建立變量間的長期共整合(cointegration)關係，對向量自我迴歸模型(VAR)進行參數估計。在此基礎上，進一步對模型運用變異數分解方法、脈衝響應函數以及格蘭傑因果關係(Granger causality)檢驗深入研究上述變量之間的傳導方向、大小和快慢程度，並建立誤差糾正模型(VEC)分析誤差修正項。此外，本文還引入用於表示政策效果的虛擬變量對某些年份的新政影響進行分析。
在理論分析中，若干因素對儲蓄率的正向或負向影響可以有經濟理論來判定，另一些因素則可能對儲蓄率同時存在正向效果和負向效果，借助實證研究才能了解。從理論分析得知，在長短期儲蓄率傳導機制中，變量間的關係趨勢和統計顯著情況結果較為相似。
在長期傳導機制中，選取的變量間存在長期共整合關係，其中存款儲蓄率和平均預期壽命對儲蓄率發揮顯著正向影響效果，而貸款利率和老年扶養比則顯示出明顯負向效果。在短期傳導機制中，儲蓄率的調整方向與存款利率、通貨膨脹率、人均GNP增長率、人口出生率以及平均預期壽命同向，而與貸款利率和老年扶養比的調整方向相反。格蘭傑因果檢驗顯示，少兒撫養率是儲蓄率的格蘭傑原因，而儲蓄率是人均GNP增長率和通貨膨脹率的格蘭傑原因。實證分析的計量經濟模型中，宏觀經濟情況和人口結構可以在很大程度上解釋儲蓄率的變化趨勢。另外，模型中引入的政策效果虛擬變量之顯著性較弱。
本研究有助於為中國大陸的“高儲蓄率之謎”提供更多可能的解釋，聚焦於人口結構情況，除了補充現有文獻外，了解民眾及企業的儲蓄行為，並可提供政府研擬政策的參考 。

關鍵字

儲蓄率 ； 人口結構 ； 社會政策效果 ； 利率 ； 向量自我迴歸分析

並列摘要

Since the Reform and Opening-up Policy, the economy of Mainland China has experienced a rocketing development while people from all over the world have noticed its climbing saving rate with the dropping interest rate. This paper first focuses on theoretical analyses of some determinants of saving rates, which include saving theories and hypotheses, macroeconomic factors, demographic structure, social policy, with the consideration of risk aversion. Then, referring to the statistical data of the concerning annual saving rates of Mainland China as well as those related to macroeconomic conditions and population structure, the paper deals with some empirical analyses on both of the long-run and short-run factors affected on the saving rate in Mainland China from 1980 to 2015. It establishes a long-term cointegration relationship, and estimates the corresponding parameters of VAR models. Moreover, variance decomposition method, impulse response functions, together with Granger causality tests are delivered aiming at further research on the direction, size, and speed of the transmission among the above variables, followed by the establishment of the VEC models. Furthermore, the paper introduces some dummies to measure the social policy effect in several years.
Theoretically, the influences of some above-mentioned factors may be positive or negative, while others may be vague that need to be valuated via comparison. As for the empirical analysis, in both long-term and short-term transmission mechanism, the tendency results and the statistical significant levels are similar.
In the long-term transmission mechanism, there exists some long-run cointegration. Deposit interest rate and average life expectancy show significantly positive influence on the saving rate while loaning interest rate and elder dependency ratio have a significantly negative effect on the saving rate. In the short-term transmission mechanism, the saving rate is adjusted in the same direction as that of deposit interest rate, inflation rate, growth rate of per capita GNP, population birth rate, and average life expectancy while opposite to that of loaning interest rate, and elder dependency ratio in both models. Granger tests display that the young dependency ratio is a Granger cause of the saving rate while the saving rate is a Granger cause of the growth rate of per capita GNP and the inflation rate. In the established models, macroeconomic conditions and demographic structure can explain most of the changes in the saving rate in both long term and short term. In addition, the dummies of the social policies are not significant in the models.
This study proffers more possibilities to understand the puzzle of China’s high saving rate and complements for others’ studies with consideration of demographic structure, which may provide policy suggestions for the government and influence the saving behavior of Chinese residents as well as the firms.

並列關鍵字

The Saving Rate ； Demographic Structure ； Social Policy Effect ； Interest Rate ； VAR Analysis

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