根據交通部統計處,長程國道客運之旅客人次占之比例於公元 2007 年高速鐵 路正式營運後,由 20%的高峰逐年下滑至 2009 年之 13.5%,營收所占之比例則由 48.2%逐年下滑至 36%,由此可見高鐵始營運應當為長程國道客運的市場衰退的 重要因素之一。 高鐵的威脅促使長程國道業者採取大降票價的方式因應之,如國光客運於 2008 年 5 月 12 日將台匇-高雄路線的優惠時段票價降低兩成之多,而這樣的價格 策略是否能夠在新環境中對其營收有所幫助,仍有待以實際營運資料分析之。 本研究使用需求價格彈性分析求取國光客運台匇-高雄路線優惠時段的需求 彈性值,時間範圍為 2004 年至 2010 年,結果顯示:(1)自 2004 年至高鐵始營 運前,需求價格彈性值呈現了違反需求法則的情形,台鐵的運量資料表亦呈現相 似情況,顯示當時台灣的運輸市場需求高升,帶動了長程國道客運市場的需求。 (2)高鐵營運後至 2010 年,需求價格彈性轉為符合了需求法則,且發生了旅客 面對漲價時為富有彈性,但面對降價時則無彈性之現象,表示業者正面臨到漲也 不是、降也不是的窘境。 由於需求價格彈性分析無法證實高鐵始營運是否確實為長程國道客運的需求 下滑的主要原因,因此本研究輔以多元線性迴歸分析,並使用 Chow 結構轉變點 檢定確認高鐵始營運對於國光客運台匇-高雄路線旅客人次的影響程度為何以及 是否顯著,結果顯示:(1)高鐵始營運確實造成了國光客運台匇-高雄路線客運 旅客人次之多元線性迴歸模型的結構性改變,而改變的範圍僅限於模型之截距 項。(2)高鐵始營運對於國光客運台匇-高雄路線旅客人次的影響非常顯著,證 明其確實造成了長程國道客運的需求下滑,因此抵銷了台匇-高雄路線的降價效 果並提升了漲價效果,進而導致計算高鐵營運的需求彈性值時產生了漲與跌上的 落差。
According to Ministry of Transportation and Communications R.O.C, the rate of passengers of intercity bus had decreased from 20% to 13.5% since 2007 to 2009, and the rate of revenues of intercity bus had decreased from 48.2% to 36%. The operation of Taiwan High Speed Railway is one of the major factors of this recession. The enterprise reduced price to confront the threat of high speed railway. For example, Kou-Kuang Motor Transportation Company cut down the 20% price of Taipei to Kaohsiung route in 2008. We can analyze the operation data of this route to confirm the efficacy of this strategy. The results of price elasticity of demand analysis showed that: 1)The value of price elasticity violated the law of demand since 2004 to 2007. 2)The value of price elasticity conformed the law of demand since 2007 to 2010. It was elastic when Kou-Kuang raise the price, and it was inelastic when Kou-Kuang reduced the price. We also use the multiple linear regression and Chow breakpoint test to prove that the operation of high speed railway is the major factor of the recession of the intercity bus. The results showed that: 1)The operation of high speed railway caused the structural change on the intercept of the regression model. 2)The operation of high speed railway had significant relationship to the recession of the intercity bus.