亞太地區降低糧食損失與浪費的經濟影響之評估

The Economic Assessment on Impacts of Reducing Food Loss and Waste for APEC Region

周建宇(Chien-Yu Chou)

指導教授 ： 張靜貞

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.10225

摘要

給不穩定，未來世界糧食生產和食物供給將會面臨巨大威脅，面對糧食不足的問題，近年來降低糧食損失與安全已是各地區達成糧食安全所推動的重要政策，然而現有文獻多集中在如何定義與評估糧食損失與浪費，更多的文獻集中探討如何透過技術與管理之整合，甚少研究實際分析降低損失與浪費所造成的經濟影響。
本研究根據FAO在2011年對全球各地區以及各種商品在各價值鏈階段所提供的糧食損耗比率，首先找出亞太地區各國各種糧食商品的損失與浪費比率，並運用全球貿易分析（Global Trade Analysis Project，簡稱GTAP）模型，分別對降低亞太地區各國糧食損失10%、降低亞太地區各國糧食浪費50%以及同時降低糧食10%與浪費50%做出經濟影響評估。
實證結果顯示，亞太地區各國在降低糧食損失後，對亞太地區各國GDP、福利以及家計淨所得有正面的影響，各糧食商品部門的市場價格下跌、產出與私部門家計端需求皆有上升的趨勢，亞太地區各國在出口至區域內以及世界其他地區的糧食商品也有增加。在降低糧食浪費的影響評估中，實證結果發現亞太地區各國在降低糧食浪費後，亞太地區各國的家計淨所得上升，雖然降低浪費會需求減少，導致價格與生產下降，但是減少浪費同時也會使糧食商品的國際市場價格下降並增加了亞太地區至世界其他各地區的糧食商品出口，最後在同時降低損失與浪費的情境中，研究結果顯示，亞太地區各國在降低糧食損失與浪費後，對亞太地區家計淨所得同樣有上升的影響，並且各商品的糧食市場價格更進一步下降，而亞太地區的出口至世界其他地區的貿易也有增加。

關鍵字

糧食損失 ； 糧食浪費 ； 收穫後損失 ； 可計算一般均衡 ； 全球貿易分析

並列摘要

Current world population is expected to increase to 9.3 billion by 2050. Combined with income growth and urbanization in developing countries, the resulting changes in food consumption patterns will further intensify global food security concerns. Food supplies will need to increase by 70% in order to fulfill food demand in 2050. To wit, increasing food productivity is essential for ensuring global food security but increasing cycles of adverse weather conditions associated with climate change will bring limitations on land and water resources which will severely challenge on future food production capabilities. Due to these constraints, it may not be sufficient to simply increase food production. To sustainably achieve the goals of food security in the most efficient way, reducing food losses and waste is a promising method to improve future global food security. However, there has been little analysis or research on the potential impacts of food loss and waste and the impacts of reducing them.
This study utilizes FAO estimates of loss and waste to analyze the economic impact of reducing food loss and waste in the APEC region. By using the GTAP model （Global Trade Analysis Project model） we examine three different scenarios. The first scenario determines the systemic impacts of reductions in producer losses reaching 10% for all APEC countries and commodities covered by FAO data. The second examines the outcomes of reductions in consumer waste by 50%. The last scenario examines the impact of simultaneous reductions in producer losses and consumer waste.
The empirical results from the first scenario demonstrate that reducing food loss at the producer level across the supply chain has a positive impact on GDP, welfare, and household income in the APEC region. Additionally, market prices in each food commodity sector decline, output and private sector demand both increase, and food commodity exports from APEC increase. The second scenario suggests that reducing consumer-stage food waste by 50% in APEC leads to increasing household income. Reducing waste lowers actual demand thereby causing falling prices and decreased production but also makes the international market prices of food commodities decline and increases food commodity exports from the APEC region to rest of the world. Finally, the results of the third scenario also indicate that reducing production losses and consumer waste increases household net income for the APEC region and decreases the market price of each commodity to a higher degree than based on consumer waste reduction alone; additionally, APEC region food commodity export trade was simultaneously increased.

並列關鍵字

Food losses ； Food waste ； Post-harvest losses ； Computable General Equilibrium ； Global Trade Analysis Project

參考文獻

吳佳勳、徐世勳，2004。「台紐自由貿易協定的洽簽對台、紐、澳經濟影響之一般均衡分析」，《台灣經濟預測與政策》。35卷，1期，1-40。

邱奕宏，2012。「APEC糧食安全的發展與我國的挑戰」，《臺灣經濟研究月刊》。35卷，6期，39-47。

林國榮、徐世勳、張靜貞、李秉正、黃宗煌，2001。「入會對台灣農業就業衝擊之動態一般均衡分析」《農業與經濟》。7卷，1期101-140。

林幸君，2004。「全球貿易分析（GTAP）資料庫演進及應用之探討」，《農業與經濟》。32卷，107-143。

邱奕宏，2012。「APEC糧食安全的發展與我國的挑戰」，《臺灣經濟研林幸君，2004。「全球貿易分析（GTAP）資料庫演進及應用之探討」，《農業與經濟》。32卷，107-143。