國家原油生產量與政治風險關係探討

Discussing the relation between national petroleum production and political risk

謝潤承(Jun-Cheng Hsieh)

指導教授 ： 童涵浦

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201903567

摘要

本研究欲探討產油國國內政治風險對於該國的石油生產是否有影響以及影響程度多寡。本研究理論假設政府穩定度、貪腐指數、外部衝突指數、種族緊張指數對於石油生產有正向影響；而官僚指數、法律秩序指數對於石油生產有負面影響。本研究使用個案研究方法與追蹤資料兩種研究途徑討論國內政治風險對石油生產的影響，藉由討論Gerring的個案選擇方式，決定採用具影響力個案方式作為選案的基本方式，挑出加拿大與委內瑞拉作為討論的主要個案。透過個案研究可以發現政策與政府的穩定度以及貪腐程度對於石油生產有很重大的影響，當一個政府愈穩定且政策也很穩健，官員也沒有貪腐嚴重時，該國在石油生產方面的資源投入可以達到最佳效率化；官僚組織與法律秩序的表現則因為國家往往是油田的產權所有人，所以對於相關費用以及環境稅賦的要求嚴謹程度會影響廠商生產的成本，當政府對於這塊輕忽或是隨便，廠商的生產成本下降，石油生產量就可能上升。本研究透過追蹤資料的研究後發現，隨機效果模型有最好的解釋能力，也驗證所有產油國面臨的政治風險因素的效果是一致的，藉由統計資料可以發現本研究之理論假設在統計模型中都符合於5%信心水準下顯著。證明本研究之理論假設於實證結果上是有效的。更進一步解釋貪腐的影響最大，政府穩定度其次，接下來是法律秩序跟官僚組織，最後才是種族緊張跟外部衝突。

關鍵字

政治風險 ； 石油生產量 ； 加拿大 ； 委內瑞拉 ； 追蹤資料

並列摘要

This study focuses on the relation between oil-producing countries political risk and national petroleum production. This article assumes government stability, corruption index, external conflict index, ethical tension index are positive factors to oil production. And the law and order index, bureaucracy index are negative factors to oil production. The researcher uses the case study method and panel data statistic method to discuss the relationship between country political factors and oil production. The case study method is Influential Case Selection introduced by Gerring. Based on this case selection method, this study chose Canada and Venezuela as a discussion case. After analyzing the detail condition of Canada and Venezuela, the theory hypothesis in this study can be confirmed with the case study. Furthermore, according to the result of panel data analysis, this study figures out six political risk index are significant in the statistic model. That is to say, the theory can be confirmed with the practical condition in the world. Besides the confirmation, the researcher also finds out the influential sequence among political risk index. Corruption index is the most important factor, and then the government stability is second. These two positive factors are more important than the two negative factors.

並列關鍵字

POLITICAL RISK ； OIL PRODUCTION ； CANADA ； VENEZUELA ； PANEL DATA

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