應用時空分析方法於環境公害陳情案件之研究

隨著經濟發展及教育水準的提升，國人逐漸提高對於生活環境品質的要求。為了即時處理民眾日常生活中遇到的各種環境問題，環保署於民國80年成立環保報案中心受理公害陳情案件報案。公害陳情案件是一具有空間、時間屬性的資料，環保署目前透過歷史資料的空間與時間查詢、針對個案的空間分析及案件位置的熱區分析等方式整理陳情案件資料，提供輔助資訊以提升稽查效率。本研究嘗試在環保署目前的資料分析基礎上，應用空間分析與時空分析方法，從案件的時空屬性中精進環保署目前的分析結果，並提供更多可能的分析方向。首先藉由檢視環保署預期從案件熱區中得到的資訊與應用這些資訊的方式，確立可以精進分析結果熱區計算方法，透過比較民國99年至102年四年間兩種熱區的單位面積汙染事件數，證實核密度估計(Kernel Density Estimation)較目前的熱區計算方式更能有效偵測汙染事件。第二部分則利用Kulldorff時空掃描統計，分析102年台北都會區案件的時空聚集樣態並進行案例分析，結果顯示時空聚集具有從陳情案件中捕捉汙染事件的能力，而案件屬性中是否為緊急案件與案件是否呈現時空聚集較為相關，值得做為後續精進稽查手段的研究方向。

關鍵字

公害陳情；空間分析；時空分析；核密度估計；時空掃描統計

並列摘要

With economic development and the rise of educational level, people gradually impose the requirement of the quality of the living environment. In order to deal with real-life environmental problems that people may encounter in daily life, the Environmental Protection Administration(EPA), Executive Yuan, R.O.C. (Taiwan) established the Environment Protection Complaints Center in 1991 to handle the petition cases about environmental pollution. Public nuisance petition cases were tagged by EPA with several attributes, including location, time, and more. Currently, the EPA utilizes spatial and temporal querying data, spatial analysis of the cases, and calculating the case hot spots to generate the information for the reference of inspecting efficiently. This study attempted to apply spatial analysis methods to improve the precision and accuracy of the analysis and provide additional method to capture the spatial-temporal information. First, by comparing the number of pollution incidents per kilometer in two hot spots from 2010 to 2013, we confirmed that kernel density estimation is a more effective way to detect contamination events. Second, Kulldorff’s space-time scan statistics, were used to analyze the spatial-temporal cluster of petition cases and discussed the special cases in Taipei metropolitan area at 2013. The results showed that Kulldorff’s space-time scan statistics could detect pollution incidents from petition cases of spatial-temporal cluster. Besides we found that the use of emergency tag was helpful in deciding the course of spatial-temporal cluster. These results can be used as research approach to improve inspection methods.

並列關鍵字

Public nuisance petition ； Spatial analysis ； Space-time analysis ； Kernel density estimation ； Space-time scan statistics

參考文獻

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應用時空分析方法於環境公害陳情案件之研究

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