誰是社群選戰贏家？Facebook, YouTube, Instagram 跨平台分析

2014年，柯文哲在台北市長選舉中以壓倒性優勢贏得選戰，他在社群媒體上的影響力獨佔鰲頭，也促使其他政治人物針對社群媒體策略進行改革。近年來，隨著小型政黨崛起、直接民主提升公民參與等現象，社群選戰的競爭越趨明顯。儘管社群媒體在選戰中的應用已被廣泛討論，臺灣學界仍缺少跨平台和跨時間的討論，特別是針對Instagram的研究，還處於起步階段。本研究以Facebook、YouTube、Instagram作為研究平台，研究劃分為兩大部分。首先探討2009年至2019年間，第九屆立法院113位立法委員使用社群媒體的採用時間、採用狀況和成效為何？哪些指標影響政治人物的是否採用、發文頻率、使用成效？再進一步透過均衡化假設（Equalization hypothesis）/正常化假設（Equalization hypothesis）和創新擴散理論（Diffusion of Innovation Theory），探討透過社群媒體改變政治體制權力平衡的可能性？不同社群媒體在均衡化/正常化假設的傾向為何？最後，本研究聚焦Instagram在選戰期間的應用，以量化分析和人工編碼的內容分析，針對26位台北市議員在2018年臺灣地方選舉發布的543篇Instagram貼文，分析其使用策略為何？不同政黨成員的使用策略與成效有何異同？促成貼文成功的策略又是什麼？本研究主要採用R語言進行數據蒐集、清理、量化分析。再進一步透過研究者編碼的內容分析法和迴歸分析法研究Instagram的使用策略和貼文成功指標分析。研究結果發現，政治人物們在Facebook上的使用率接近百分之百，YouTube和Instagram的使用率則由2015年成立的小型政黨時代力量佔優勢。女性比男性更傾向於使用社交媒體。相較之下，Instagram吸引更年輕的用戶。本研究聚焦創新擴散理論與均衡/正常化假說的辯論。在三個平台中，Facebook符合均衡化假設; YouTube的高成本平台特質強化了標準化假設，Instagram符合均衡化假設。本研究追蹤2009年至2019年政治人物們對社交媒體的使用，探討Facebook從均衡化到正常化的轉變。針對Instagram，本研究藉由創新擴散模型歸納，該平台具有發展為選戰策略工具的潛能與趨勢，是剛興起的政治工具，因此本研究也對Instagram未來趨向正常化假設的可能性進行了預測。最後觀察Instagram的使用策略發現，Instagram還沒有被策略性地作為一個動員平台。在貼文策略的十個主題分類中，最常被採用的貼文類型是「選民互動(Fan contact)」和「懇請支持（Pleae vote）」。國民黨政治人物傾向使用「背書策略（Endorsement）」，也是唯一使用「負面策略(Negative)」的政黨，然而這種方法趨於正常化假設，不符合Instagram的均衡化傾向，因此並未帶來良好的互動成效。政治人物們並沒有善用「個性化策略(Personalization)」，藉由發文凸顯他們的個人形象。另外，針對什麼策略影響貼文的愛心數？本文透過量化分析發現，「名人代言(Celebrity Endorsement)」策略是觸動貼文收到較多讀者按讚數的關鍵要素。

關鍵字

政治傳播；均衡化；正常化；創新擴散理論； Facebook ； YouTube ； Instagram ；社群媒體；內容分析；選戰

並列摘要

Taiwan, as a promising young democracy in Asia, has its particularity as a case study. In recent years, the rise of the online campaign has changed Taiwan's dynamic of politicking. Since 2014, Ko Wen-Je’s landslide victory of the mayoral election regarding social media used in the campaign has led to the reform of other politicians’ online strategies. The need for online campaigns is expected to be higher while small parties rise and the concern for superficial democracy is becoming increasingly evident. Thus, the issue of social media campaign has received considerable critical attention. However, cross-platform comparisons and longitudinal discussions have not yet to take place in Taiwanese academia. Instagram research, in particular, as an emerging field of academic research, is still in its infancy. This study focuses on Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram and is devoted to two main parts. The first group of analyses reviews the use of social media by 113 members of the 9th Legislative Yuan from 2009 to 2019. With equalization/normalization hypothesis and diffusion of innovation theory, the study will explore the possibility to transform the power balance of the political system through online campaigns and analyze whether there is a difference between social media platforms with regard to equalization/normalization tendencies. Following, with the primary quantitative overview of Taiwanese politicians’ social media adoption and performance and the premise of more active social media employment during electoral campaign, this study will further qualitatively focus on Instagram, conducting a content analysis on 543 posts released by 26 members of Taipei council during the 2018 Taiwanese Local Election to understand political actors’ strategies and to predict the success of their Instagram postings. This study mainly adopts the R software for data acquisition, cleaning, statistical analysis and regression analysis, such as extracting the adoption time, activity and performance of social platforms, and comparing the adoption differences in different periods and the performance usage of different platforms. Then, the post strategy and success prediction of Instagram are further studied with the content analysis methods and regression analysis. This study found that politicians' adoption on Facebook has reached nearly 100%, while YouTube and Instagram adoption rates are predominated by the New Power Party, the small party founded in 2015. Women are more likely to adopt social media than men. Furthermore, there is a clear trend of Instagram’s potential as a campaign tool with adopters younger than politicians on Facebook and YouTube. This study contributes to the debates about the equalization/normalization hypothesis with the diffusion of innovation theory. Among the three platforms, Facebook is consistent with the normalization hypothesis; YouTube strengthens the normalization hypothesis, and Instagram is in line with equalization tendencies. Analyzing the use of social media by politicians within ten years, the study explains a shift from equalization to normalization on Facebook, and the future of Instagram's possibilities towards normalization tendencies are expected. Regarding Instagram content strategy, the study implies that Instagram is not yet a strategic mobilization platform. The most frequently used strategy is the call to action and fan contact. The KMT mainly adopts politicians' endorsement strategies and is the only party that uses negative strategies. This approach does not meet the platform’s equalization tendencies. Personalized usage strategies have always been considered the best style for Instagram, but politicians don’t highlight their meaningful personalities. The most striking finding is that a possible success prediction is the celebrity endorsement strategy. Finally, this study provides crucial insights into the field of political communication and visual communication, reflecting the special context of Taiwanese online campaigns. With the increasing importance of social media use for political campaigns and the rising attention of visual communication, this study has shed light on the potential of Instagram as a campaign tool.

並列關鍵字

political communication ； equalization ； normalization ； diffusion of innovations ； Facebook ； YouTube ； Instagram ； Taiwan ； social media

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誰是社群選戰贏家？Facebook, YouTube, Instagram 跨平台分析

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