以重力模型探討自由貿易協定效果-以臺灣對中國之出口貿易依存度為例

The Impact of Free Trade Agreement on Taiwan’s Trade Dependence upon China: An Application of Gravity Model

邱韋銘(Wei-Ming Ciou)

指導教授 ： 羅竹平

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201600501

摘要

本研究包含兩部分：第一部分將以重力理論模型預估台灣對中國的出口貿易依存度。模擬ECFA取消後，造成台灣出口至中國的關稅率逐年上升，台灣對中國的出口貿易依存度降低。假設重力理論中的進口貿易替代係數為5，則台灣對中國的出口貿易依存度將由2014年的15.51%下降至2018年的14.5%；若進口貿易替代係數為10，則出口貿易依存度至2018年將降為13.55%，至2018年時的13.55%與14.5%，即為台灣對中國出口貿易依存度的預估區間。在關稅率上升的情況下，進口貿易替代係數越高，台灣對中國的出口貿易依存度下降的幅度更加明顯。再由台灣對中國的估計出口貿易依存度與實際值進行假設檢定分析，在不同的進口貿易替代係數下，皆可以得知利用重力理論有辦法成功的估計下一年度之出口貿易依存度。
第二部分評估中韓簽訂貿易協定對台灣的影響。韓國近年來也積極的與各國簽訂自由貿易協定，其中完成簽定的國家中又以美國和中國為主要經濟體，由於中韓貿易協定才於2015年簽訂，對未來貿易走向並不確定，故採用韓美自由貿易協定為標竿，用以估計台灣因為沒有簽訂自由貿易協定所可以帶來的貿易額損失。由模擬得知韓國會因為與中國簽署自由貿易協定後，會使出口至中國的貿易額較原先未簽署中韓自貿協定時增加500.77億美元；反之台灣會因為並沒有和中國簽署自由貿易協定，使出口至中國的貿易額較原先中韓貿易協定未簽訂時下降9.69億美元。

關鍵字

ECFA ； 假設檢定 ； 出口貿易依存度 ； 中韓貿易 ； 進口貿易替代係數 ； 自由貿易協定

並列摘要

This paper contains two parts. Part I aims to use the gravity theory to forecast Taiwan’s ratio of dependence on exports to China. If ECFA is assumed to be abolished, it is estimated that the tariffs of Taiwan’s exports to China will increase annually. To this end, Taiwan’s ratio of dependence on exports to China would decrease. If the elasticity of substitution in the gravity theory is five, then Taiwan’s ratio of dependence on exports to China will decrease from 15.51% in 2014 to 14.5% in 2018. If the elasticity of substitution is 10, then its ratio of dependence on exports to China will be reduced to 13.55% in 2018. As a result, in 2018, the estimated interval of Taiwan’s ratio of dependence on exports to China will fall between 13.55% and 14.5%. It is found that when tariffs are increased, the higher the elasticity of substitution is, the more obvious the width of decrease in Taiwan’s ratio of dependence on export to China’s is. Next, hypothesis testing is made with estimated value and real value. In different elasticity of substitution, the ratio of dependence on export of the following year can be successfully evaluated by applying the gravity theory.
In part II, the impact of Korea signing FTA with China to Taiwan will be assessed. Korea has actively signed a free trade agreement with various countries recently. Among its trade partners, U.S.A. and China are the major economies. As China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was signed in 2015, the future trend is still unclear. On the foundation of U.S.-Korea FTA, the estimation of the trade loss of Taiwan will be made under the condition that Taiwan is not engaged in any FTA. After the simulation, it is found that the amount of Korea’s export value to China will increase by US$50.077 billion because of China-South Korea FTA. On the contrary, Taiwan will have a US$969 million loss on export value to China because of China-South Korea FTA.

並列關鍵字

ECFA ； hypothesis testing ； ratio of dependence on export ； China-South Korea trade ； elasticity of substitution ； free trade agreement

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