應用風險管理於台灣企業預防中國大陸紅色供應鏈之衝擊—以L集團為例—

Applying Risk Management for Taiwan’s Enterprises to Defending Against the Rise of China’s Red Supply Chain‐An Example of Corporation L‐

江旭帆(Hsu-Fan Chiang)

指導教授 ： 胡為善 ； 陳佑倫

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201600711

摘要

最近十年來，台灣的電子產業鏈正面臨著紅色供應鏈的重大衝擊，尤其以往與台灣合作關係密切的國際廠商，也相繼朝向中國大陸靠攏，使得兩岸產業從過去原本的垂直分工演變成現在的水平競爭。無庸諱言的，紅色供應鏈目前已呈現無法避免的趨勢，也是台灣企業必須正視的生存問題。
本研究以AS/NZS 4360風險管理標準之架構來處理紅色供應鏈對於台灣企業造成的衝擊，其中針對風險管理步驟中的風險辨識，本研究經由文獻探討，蒐集可能潛在的風險因子，並利用德爾菲法進行專家問卷調查，且修正從文獻探討中整理出來的風險因子，多次經過十二位專家確認相關意見後，達成共識。最後以層級分析法排序風險因子，找出最重要的潛在風險，以供決策者參考，俾進行風險管理的下一步驟：風險分析。
本研究實證結果歸納如下：
1. 本研究發現，專家團隊一致確認為「國家政策」是紅色供應鏈影響台灣最重要的外部風險，其中包含「中國大陸的政府輔助，扶持企業」與「中國大陸企業與外商策略聯盟」等2項風險因子。
2. 本研究發現，「產品創新能力」是紅色供應鏈中影響最大的風險因子。由於兩岸電子產品差異不大，常以價格高低互相競爭。因此在面對紅色供應鏈的威脅下，本研究建議，台灣電子產品必須不斷創新，才不會輕易被對手所取代。

關鍵字

紅色供應鏈 ； 風險因子 ； 德爾菲法 ； 層級分析法 ； AS/NZS 4360風險管理標準

並列摘要

For the past decade, Taiwan’s electronic industry’s supply chain had been significantly impacted by the Mainland China’s red supply chain. Particularly, international electronic companies that had closely cooperated with Taiwan are gradually turning to China, thus changing the cross-strait industrial model from vertical cooperation to horizontal competition. However, since the red supply chain has become an inevitable trend of the future, Taiwan’s electronic enterprises must seriously facing against this challenge.
This study examines the impact of the red supply chain on Taiwan’s electronic companies based on the AS/NZS 4360 risk management standard framework. The Delphi method is employed to conduct expert’s questionnaires and potential risk factors identified from literature were sorted and modified after confirming with each expert's comments, then consensus was achieved. The most critical potential risks were identified by ranking all risk factors through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which could be served as a reference for policy makers in determining the next step of risk management (i.e. risk analysis).
The empirical results are summarized below:
1. A team of twelve experts finds that the "National policy of the Mainland China" is the most critical external risk from the red supply chain's influence on Taiwan’s electronic companies, which consists of two risk factors, namely "Mainland China’s government subsidies for enterprise support" and "Strategic alliance between Chinese companies and foreign firms.”
2. This study also finds that "Product innovation capability" is the most critical risk factor from the red supply chain's impact. As there is little difference between products themselves from both sides, the price gap is the major factor for comparison. However, in facing against the threat of the red supply chain, Taiwan’s electronic companies must continue to innovate its products to avoid being replaced by their competitors from the Mainland China.

並列關鍵字

analytic hierarchy process ； AS/NZS 4360 risk management standard ； red supply chain ； risk factor ； Delphi method ； risk management standard

參考文獻

賴瑞菊 (2011)，「風險可接受度探討」，國立中央大學碩士論文。

台灣區電機電子工業同業公會(Taiwan Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers’ Association, TEEMA) (2015)，「2015全球科技產業紅潮來襲 - 大陸紅色供應鏈全面崛起」，參考網址：http://www.teema.org.tw/exhibition-detail.aspx?infoid=12437

吳東憲，林信惠 (2015)，「以風險管理與知識整合確保大型資訊專案之績效-以新建製造工廠為例」， International Journal, 7(4), 251-266。

柯志昌，謝濬鈞 (2015)，「新竹都會治理指標之合理性建構研究－－德爾菲技術應用暨政策意涵分析」，東吳政治學報33卷3期。

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