公司治理與信用風險-科技業之實證研究

2008年全球金融海嘯(Financial Tsunami)席捲全球企業，導致全球經濟狀況不佳，許多企業發生財務危機，導致人心惶惶。2009年歐債危機亦影響了台灣經濟。科技業是台灣的重要產業，若有不慎，也會有債信不良的危機。所以，企業是否做好財務風險管理與公司治理，已是相當重要的課題。本文以統計科學方法建立科技業公司治理與信用風險模型(Credit Risk Models)，把科技業危機公司與正常公司按照固定資產相近的同類產業，做一對一的配對組合，樣本資料來自2000年至2013年共140組台灣經濟新報(TEJ)資料。希望找出影響公司經營之顯著變數，在公司發生財務風險(Financial Risk)前，預測出將來可能發生之機率，以達到事前預警與風險管理(Risk Management)的效果。實證分析上，以K-S檢定、M-U檢定與Logistic迴歸建立預警模型。實證結果發現，科技業當負債比率＞50%，應提高稅前淨利率，以增強公司的獲利能力；同時設置獨立董監事(內部人)、避免更換會計師(外部人CPAs)，可增強科技業公司治理能力，降低信用風險發生的機率。實證價值與意涵，科技業重視內外部人之監控，實施公司治理，可以降低公司發生信用風險的可能性。

關鍵字

公司治理；信用風險模型；財務風險管理；獨立董監事

並列摘要

In 2008, the global financial tsunami severely damaged global business and led to global economic downturn. Many enterprises thus experienced financial crises, which led to the panic of people. In 2009, the European debt crisis also affected the economy in Taiwan. Technology industry is an important industry in Taiwan, and any carelessness may also result in the crisis of bad credit. Therefore, whether the financial risk management and corporate governance of enterprises are adequate has become a very important issue. This study used scientific statistical methods to establish the Corporate Governance and Credit Risk Models for corporations in technology industry. This study one-to-one matched technology corporations facing financial crisis to normal corporations with similar fixed assets in similar industry. The data were collected from a total of 140 matches of Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) from 2000 to 2013. It was hoped that the variables which have a significant effect on corporate operation can be found and used for the prediction of the probability of future financial crisis before corporations face any financial risk, and the objective of advance warning and risk management and be achieved. In terms of empirical analysis, this study used the K-S test, M-U test and logistic regression to establish the advance warning model. The empirical results showed that when the debt ratio is greater than 50 percents, technology industry should increase the pre-tax profit margin to strengthen their profitability. In addition, the establishment of the posts of independent directors and supervisors (internal personnel) and avoidance of change of accountant (external personnel CPAs) can strengthen technology corporations’ corporate governance and reduce the probability of credit risk. The empirical value and meaning of this study are to find that, as long as technology industry attaches importance to the monitoring of internal and external personnel and implement corporate governance, the possibility of credit risk of corporations can be reduced.