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  • 學位論文

臺灣課徵國際航空碳稅之經濟影響評估

Economy-wide Impact Analysis of a Carbon Tax on International Aviation in Taiwan

指導教授 : 李叢禎
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摘要


近年來各國紛紛簽訂自由貿易協定,使得各國間的貿易往來更加頻繁,也帶動國際航空運輸量以每年4%以上的幅度快速擴張,雖然目前國際航空運輸業的CO2排放僅佔全球排放量的2%~3%,但快速的成長勢必會對全球氣候變遷問題造成嚴重的威脅,也因此國際民航組織(International Civil Aviation Organization,ICAO)預定於2016年底前制定一套全球航空運輸業的CO2管制辦法,並於2020年開始實施,雖然目前ICAO尚無具體之管制措施,僅表示會以MBMs(Market-Based Measures)為管制制度規劃方向,而目前國際間對於後京都議定書時期的溫室氣體管制大致是以自願性減讓的方向來做討論,要求各國自行提出能對溫室氣體減讓做出多少貢獻,因此未來對於國際航空業的CO2排放管制辦法也很有可能會以自願性減讓的方向來制定,故本研究將假設臺灣自行對國籍航空公司課徵國際航空碳稅,並以包含「經濟-能源-環境」連結的多地區、多部門可計算一般均衡模型-GTAP-E(Energy-Environmental Version of Global Trade Analysis Project)模型進行經濟影響評估分析,探討臺灣課徵國際航空碳稅後,對臺灣產業部門、進出口貿易流量、實質GDP以及CO2排放量之可能影響。本研究模擬結果顯示,在低碳稅(€7/公噸CO2)的情境下,課徵國際航空碳稅會使臺灣航空部門的產出萎縮4.34%(276.52百萬美元),航空運輸服務的出口會減少12.46%(299.45百萬美元),但對其他部門的衝擊則較不顯著,另外對實質GDP的影響也很有限,在高碳稅(€30/公噸CO2)的情境下,實質GDP只會下降0.06%(236.34百萬美元),與實質GDP相比,臺灣的CO2排放量下降幅度則略高一些,約會下降0.53%(1.36百萬公噸CO2),也就是說課徵國際航空碳稅會使得臺灣的 CO2排放密集度(intensity of CO2 emission)下降。

並列摘要


With the expansion of global trade, international aviation has grown strongly in the recent years. Air transportation services increase more than 4% per year. Though aviation only accounts for 2~3% of global CO2 emission, the rapid growth must cause serious threat to global climate change. As a result, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) decides to draw up a restriction on international aviation CO2 emission before the end of 2016. And the CO2 emission control will be put into force in 2020. ICAO has not released specific controls on CO2 emission, but expressed that they would go after the orientation of market-based measures. Therefore, the discussion of controlling the greenhouse gas emission in international follows the direction of voluntary emission reductions. This thesis assumes that there is a carbon tax on international aviation in Taiwan. And we adopt a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which including the link of “economy–energy–environment”, named Energy-Environmental Version of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-E), assessing the impact of levying a carbon tax on international aviation in Taiwan. According to the results, a carbon tax on international aviation in Taiwan only causes a relatively significant impact on aviation. Under the scenario of low carbon tax rate (€7 per ton of CO2), the real outputs of the aviation industry in Taiwan will reduce by 4.34% (276.52 million U.S. dollars) and the exports of air transport services will reduce by 12.46% (299.45 million U.S. dollars). However, the impacts are insignificant on other industries in Taiwan, so as to the real GDP growth rates of Taiwan. Even under the scenario of high carbon tax (€30 per ton of CO2), the real GDP growth rates only reduce by 0.06% (236.34 million U.S. dollars), and the CO2 emission in Taiwan only decreases by 0.53% (1.36 million tons CO2), which is insignificant. Since the percentage change in the CO2 emission is greater than the percentage change in real GDP growth rates, a carbon tax on international aviation in Taiwan will lead the intensity of CO2 emission in Taiwan to decrease.

參考文獻


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